000 AXNT20 KNHC 120539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Mar 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A strong NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will support gale-force winds in the NW Gulf tonight. The gale-force winds will be in the offshore waters of Mexico, and along the north central Gulf coast, as the front moves eastward quickly. The sea heights will build to a range from 12 feet to 16 feet in the northern Gulf, and to a range from 12 feet to 18 feet in the southwest Gulf on Sat. The wind speeds will diminish on Sun, with wave the heights subsiding by early Mon as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward. Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: A strong cold front will enter the subtropical western Atlantic Ocean mid-day on Sat. Gale-force SW winds will begin to develop in the waters north of 30N Sat morning. As the front passes, winds will shift to the west to northwest, while maintaining gale-force strength through Sat night. The wave heights will build to the range of 12-16 ft north of 28N and west of 60W. The wind speeds will diminish early on Sun, with wave heights subsiding early on Mon. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 05N10W, to the Equator along 21W, to 02S26W. The ITCZ continues from 02S26W, to the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 100 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 15W and 30W, from the Equator to 02N between 22W and 24W, and from 01N southward between 44W and 46W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 54W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about the gale-force winds in the western Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force winds are to the northwest of the cold front. A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate, and widely scattered strong, is within 150 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf coast from 89W eastward. The sea heights are building to 8 feet. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds, and sea heights reaching 5 feet, are elsewhere in the eastern half of the Gulf. A Gale Warning is in effect for all the Gulf waters except the SE part. A strong cold front extends from southeastern Louisiana to 27N93W and to inland Mexico just north of Tampico. The front will sweep across the rest of the Gulf by early Sat evening. Gale-force winds and very rough seas will follow the front through Sat. High pressure in the wake of the front will then shift eastward through Mon, allowing for fresh east to southeast return flow to set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf late Mon night, and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds will precede and follow this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge is about 480 nm to the north of Hispaniola. Expect generally moderate to fresh E to SE surface wind flow around the Atlantic Ocean-based ridge. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet between 62W and 73W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from 18N northward between 73W and 85W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the low level clouds that are moving through the area, in the trade wind flow, from 16N southward from 73W eastward, and from 15N northward from 75W westward. High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea tonight. Then, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds will end in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Sea by early Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about the gale-force winds in the western Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N northward from 70W westward. This precipitation is to the south of an inland SE U.S.A. warm front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 30N46W. Fresh to strong NE winds cover the waters that are from 03N to 28N from the Bahamas eastward. The sea heights range from 11 feet to 13 feet from 23N northward between 20W and 40W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet, elsewhere, from 63W eastward. Some areas of sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 63W eastward, and elsewhere from 63W westward. Fresh to strong southerly winds are over the NE Florida waters ahead of a strong cold front that is forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat morning. Gale conditions are forecast ahead and behind the front Sat and Sat night. Rough seas are expected Sat through early next week. Elsewhere, swell will continue to impact the Lesser Antilles into early next week as this swell event will be reinforced by another set of swell. $$ MT/JA