000 AXNT20 KNHC 092313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Mar 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N11.5W, to the Equator along 20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 01.5S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44.5W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04S to 05.5N E of 17W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 17W and 28W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm of the coast of South America S of 03.5N GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near Apalachicola to 28.5N85.5W to 24.5N94W to the Mexican coast at 20N96.5W, then continues inland across eastern Mexico to 22N100W. Broken to overcast low and middle level clouds cover the waters NW of the front, while scattered moderate convection is along and E of the front to the Florida coast N of 26.5N. Fresh N to NE winds are north of the front to the east of 95W, where seas are 3-6 ft. Strong NW to N winds are behind the front W of 95W, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail across the SE Gulf with seas of 2-4 ft. The cold front will stall from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche on Thu before gradually dissipating. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish later this evening, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing behind and ahead of the front through Thu. A new strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the west and central parts of the Gulf waters Fri night and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally fair and stable conditions prevail across all but the far SE portions of the basin. Scattered moderate showers are seen across the SE to the south of 12N and east of 66W. Elsewhere isolated showers dot the eastern Caribbean E of 70W. The Atlantic ridge is centered along about 50W, and is only supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds across the basin E of 80W, and SE winds across the outer waters of the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere across NW portions moderate SE winds prevail. The strongest trades are found off of Colombia and offshore of Hispaniola. Seas are 5-7 ft E of 68W, 6-9 ft across central portions, 4-7 ft NW portions. The Atlantic high pressure ridge will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will end south of the Dominican Republic Thu night and in the Gulf of Honduras by Fri night. A cold front is expected to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic surface ridge extends nearly E to W along about 30N, centered on a 1027 mb high near 31N49W, to a 1022 mb high pressure center near 32N17W. Strong S to SW winds prevail offshore of N Florida to 74W and extend to offshore of the Carolina coasts. Fresh easterly trades cover most of the tropical Atlantic S of 22N and continue to the Turks and Caicos, becoming moderate to fresh across the Bahamas. Seas are 7-11 ft across the tradewind zone, 6-8 ft N of the NE Caribbean to 26N, and 5-6 ft E of the Bahamas. Seas are building across the NW waters in the strong southerly flow at 5-8 ft. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail across the waters E of NE Florida through tonight. Winds will increase again in that area Fri night into Sat morning ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat. Gale conditions and very rough seas are possible ahead and behind the front Sat and Sun. Elsewhere, E swell that has been impacting the Atlantic offshore waters of the NE Caribbean will subside Thu, but continue to impact the Lesser Antilles through the weekend. $$ Stripling