000 AXNT20 KNHC 091738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Mar 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N12W, to the Equator along 20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W, to 01S28W 03S37W 02S42W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm on the southern side of the monsoon trough from 17W eastward; and within 150 nm on the northern side of the ITCZ between 23W and 26W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, is between 05W and 11W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 600 nm of the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to 27N90W and to 22N96W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from 22N96W, to the coast of Mexico at 21N97W, inland in Mexico to 23N100W. A surface trough is in the central and southwestern sections of the Gulf of Mexico from 26N91W to 19N94W. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N northward, to the northwest of the line that runs from NE Florida to the central Gulf near 25N90W. Other rainshowers are from the surface trough westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 92W westward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 92W elsewhere. Fresh to strong northerly winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Texas and Mexico, from the stationary front northward. Moderate southerly winds cover the Gulf of Mexico from the frontal boundary eastward. A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to near Tuxpan in Mexico. The front will stretch across the central Gulf later today, stalling from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche this evening before gradually dissipating by Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish by this evening with gentle to moderate winds prevailing behind and ahead of the front through tonight. A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western and central parts of the Gulf Fri night and Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this front across the rest of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the low level clouds that are moving through the area, in the trade wind flow. The comparatively fastest of the strong NE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W. Mostly fresh to other strong NE-to-E winds are elsewhere from 80W eastward. Fresh to localized strong SE winds are within 300 nm to the north of Honduras from 83W westward. Moderate SE winds are elsewhere from 15N northward from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet near the coast of Colombia, and from 5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere in the central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet in the eastern Caribbean. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the western Caribbean Sea, except for ranges from 4 feet to 6 feet in the Gulf of Honduras. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will end south of the Dominican Republic Thu night and in the Gulf of Honduras by Fri night. A cold front is expected to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge passes through a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 32N17W, to a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 31N45W, to 29N61W to 28N72W, into the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N83W. Gentle anticyclonic winds are near the ridge. Fresh to strong NE winds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 03N to 27N from the Bahamas eastward. The sea heights range from 9 feet to 12 feet from 31N northward between 30W and 50W. The sea heights generally range from 5 feet to 8 feet elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail across the waters E of NE Florida through tonight. Winds will increase again in that area Fri night into Sat morning ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat. Gale conditions and very rough seas are possible ahead and behind the front Sat and Sun. Elsewhere, swell that has been impacting the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico will subside Thu, but continue to impact the Lesser Antilles through the weekend. $$ mt