000 AXNT20 KNHC 082314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2210 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits Africa along the coast of Liberia near 07N12W and continues to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 0.5N30W to 02S39W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered to numerous strong convection is within 150 nm S of the monsoon trough between 06W and 19W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of 03.5N between 21W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N86W to a 1012 mb low pressure center near 27N95.5W, then extends southward to N of Veracruz in Mexico near 20N96.5W. Broken to overcast low and middle level clouds with isolated moderate rainshowers are to the northwest of the stationary front in the coastal waters of Louisiana and Texas and extend southward to 20N to the W of the front. Coastal fog across the Texas coastal waters has burned off this afternoon. Moderate to fresh NNW winds prevail W of the front across the Texas and Mexico waters, where seas are 4-7 ft. E and SE of the front, moderate S to SE winds prevail with seas of 2-5 ft. The front will transition to a cold tonight and extend from Cape San Blas to the Bay of Campeche Wed evening where it will stall before gradually dissipating by Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will be behind and ahead of the front through Wed night. A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this front, except for gale-force winds possibly developing along the Mexico coast Fri night through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mainly fresh easterly winds cover the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea. Localized strong winds are near the coast of Colombia where seas are 7-8 ft. The conditions are more favorable in the NW Caribbean Sea, with moderate E to SE winds and seas that range from 3 to 5 feet. Generally dry and stable conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the low level clouds that are moving through the SE Caribbean east of 64W. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will end south of Hispaniola Thu night, and in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean Sat early in the evening followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends generally E to W across the Atlantic basin, from a 1026 mb high pressure center near 31N45W. The ridge continues WSW to central Florida along 27.5N, and to the ENE to a 1022 mb high center near 33N15W. Mainly moderate anticyclonic winds are seen from 24N northward to the W of 55W. The pressure gradient increases south of 24N across the entire Atlantic Ocean, where mostly NE to E fresh winds dominate, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Scattered moderate showers prevail across the waters S of 18N and W of 50W. Meanwhile, a narrow line of scattered moderate convection is occurring just N of the area offshore of NE Florida and Georgia, within 90 nm SE of a cold front that extends from beyond 34N71W to the Georgia coast along 31.5N81.5W. Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail through Fri, except for locally strong winds developing off the NE Florida offshore waters tonight through Wed. Moderate E tradewind swell that has been impacting the offshore waters of the NE Caribbean will subside Thu. A strong cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Sat. Strong to near gale force southerly winds will develop off the Florida coast on Fri night ahead of the front, briefly increasing to gale force Sat morning. Strong to near-gale force northerly winds will quickly follow the front with building seas affecting the most of the area through Sun morning. $$ Stripling