000 AXNT20 KNHC 081737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Mar 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W, to the Equator along 32W, to 02S40W, and 02S46W in Brazil. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Africa from 03N to 07N between 04W and 12W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 25N96W, to N of Veracruz in Mexico near 20N96W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the northwest of the stationary front in the coastal waters of Louisiana and Texas; from 27N southward from 88W eastward; and from 22N southward from 92W westward in the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong N to NE winds have been to the northwest of the front off the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana. Fresh winds have been off the coast of south central and SE Louisiana. Earlier buoy observations were showing that the sea heights were ranging from 5 feet to 8 feet in the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong N winds are to the west of the front to the coast of Mexico. Mainly gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are elsewhere, to the east of the front, . An exception is moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the Florida Straits, and off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Some fog was lingering to the east of the front in the north central Gulf, with visibilities less than 2 nm at times. Areas of dense fog continue to linger in the NW Gulf, in the vicinity of a stationary front that extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center near 25N96W, to N of Veracruz, Mexico near 20N96W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow the front through Wed night, as the boundary slowly pushes eastward into the central Gulf before stalling and then dissipating gradually by Thu. A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds are possible along the Mexico coast from Fri night through Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas are expected to impact most of the basin through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mainly fresh easterly winds cover the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea. Localized strong winds are near the coast of Colombia. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet. The conditions are more favorable in the NW Caribbean Sea, with moderate E to SE winds and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 5 feet. Fresh winds are in the Gulf of Honduras. Relatively dry spans the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the low level clouds that are moving through the area, in the trade wind flow: now from 15N southward between 60W and 70W, from 16N between 70W and 80W, and from 80W westward. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will end south of the Dominican Republic Thu night, and in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean Sea Sat early in the evening followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 33N15W, to a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 31N45W. The ridge continues from 31N45W, 30N60W, 28N75W, beyond central Florida. Mainly moderate anticyclonic winds are from 26N northward from 65W westward. The pressure gradient increases south of 24.5N in the western Atlantic Ocean, with buoys reporting fresh easterly winds and 8 ft seas east of the southern Bahamas. The sea heights elsewhere are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N northward from 30W eastward, and from 20N northward between 40W and 60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N northward within 180 nm to the east of Florida. Light to gentle winds are from 28N northward, with seas 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the waters that are from 28N southward between 35W to 65W, with the sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet in mostly easterly swell. Fresh winds are off the coast of Western Sahara, with the sea heights ranging from 5 feet to 8 feet. Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail through Fri, except for locally strong winds developing off the NE Florida offshore waters tonight through Wed. Swell that has been impacting the waters off the Bahamas and portions of the Greater Antilles will subside by tonight. A strong cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Sat. Strong southerly winds will develop off the Florida coast on Fri night ahead of the front. Strong to near-gale force winds will expand in areal coverage on Sat behind the front with brief gale force winds possible along with building seas. $$ MT