000 AXNT20 KNHC 081029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Mar 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 02N34W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted south of 05N between 18W- 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Pensacola, Florida near 30N87W to a 1014 mb low near 24N96W to south of Tampico, Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off along the central Gulf coast, N of 28N between 86W and 90W. An overnight ASCAT satellite pass shows strong N to NE winds west of the front off the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana, with fresh winds off south-central and SE Louisiana. Buoys confirm seas range 5-8 ft in the western Gulf. Strong N winds are occurring west of the front to the coast of Mexico. Mainly gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere over the basin to the east of the front, except for moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the Florida Straits and off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fog continues to linger east of the front in the north-central Gulf with visibility less than 2 nm at times. For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W to a 1014 mb low near 25N95W to south of Tampico, Mexico near 21N97W. Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the front, with the strong winds diminishing by this morning. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow the front through Wed night as the boundary slowly pushes eastward into the central Gulf. The front will stall by Wed night and then gradually dissipate by Thu. A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds are possible along the Mexico coast on Fri night through Sat. Strong to near gale- force winds and rough seas are expected to impact most of the basin through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mainly fresh easterly winds dominate the central and eastern Caribbean, according to data from the overnight ASCAT satellite pass. Localized strong winds are noted near the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 6-8 ft. Conditions are more favorable in the NW Caribbean with moderate E to SE winds and 4-5 ft seas. However, ASCAT shows fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Relatively dry air prevails across the basin, although isolated showers and tstorms continue in the lee of western Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Thu night. Strong winds in the Windward Passage will end this morning and end south of the Dominican Republic later today. In the Gulf of Honduras and Belize adjacent waters, E to SE winds are expected tonight through Fri night. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean Sat night and bring strong winds and building seas. Moderate to fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft seas in persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The weather pattern is dominated by a broad ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high east of Bermuda near 32N51W. Surface ridging extends W from the high to central Florida, with mainly moderate anticyclonic winds north of 26N and west of 65W. The pressure gradient increases south of 24.5N in the western Atlantic, with buoys reporting fresh easterly winds and 8 ft seas east of the southern Bahamas, with seas elsewhere ranging from 6-8 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the NE Florida coast, N of 28N and W of 78W. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 24N55W to 16N57W with isolated showers. Light to gentle winds prevail N of 28N with seas 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds are prevailing south of 28N between 35W to 65W with 8-10 ft seas in mostly easterly swell. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N19W to 28N34W. Fresh winds are noted off the Western Sahara coast, otherwise gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas 5-8 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, as high pressure shifts east, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail through Fri. Swell that has been impacting the waters off the Bahamas and portions of the Greater Antilles will subside by tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida offshore waters tonight through Wed. A strong cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Sat. Strong southerly winds will develop off the Florida coast on Fri night ahead of the front. Strong to near- gale force winds northerly will expand in areal coverage on Sat behind the front with brief gale force winds possible along with building seas. $$ AReinhart