000
AXNT20 KNHC 072300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2210 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast along the 
border of Liberia and Cote d'Ivoire near 08.5N08W to 04.5N14W. 
The ITCZ continues from 04.5N14W to the equator along 30W to 
01N41W to the coast of Brazil near 00S50W. Scattered to locally 
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted S of 04N between 
17W and 43W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

The majority of the basin is dominated by a moderate southeasterly
breeze and moderate wind seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh easterly winds 
in the Florida Straits this morning have veered to SE this
afternoon, where seas are 5-7 ft. A cold front has entered the NW
Gulf today and moved SSE off the Texas coast, and extends from SE
Louisiana to the upper Mexican coast just south of the Texas
border. Strong northerly winds are building behind the front. Seas
have built as high as 8-11 ft offshore of the SE Texas coast in
recent hours. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm SE of
the cold front across the Louisiana coastal waters.

Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the cold front through 
tonight while the boundary is forecast to stall from the Florida 
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. The stationary front will then 
linger across the area through midweek and then gradually 
dissipate by Thu. Seas will peak around 10 ft tonight behind the
front across the Mexican offshore waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh easterly winds dominate the central and eastern
Caribbean. Areas of strong winds are noted in the Windward 
Passage, to the south of Hispaniola, and along the coast of 
Colombia. Seas are generally 6-8 ft and up to 9 ft near Colombia.
Conditions are more favorable with in the NW Caribbean with 
moderate E to SE winds and 4-5 ft seas.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong 
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Thu night, in 
the Windward Passage through tonight, and south of Hispaniola 
through Tue. Moderate to fresh trades, along with 8 to 9 ft seas 
in persistent northeast to east swell, will continue to impact the
waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weather pattern is dominated by a broad ridge along 32N-33N,
and centered on a 1029 mb high east of Bermuda near 32N59W. 
Surface ridging extends W from the high to northern Florida, with
mainly moderate anticyclonic winds north of 26N and west of 65W. 
The pressure gradient increases south of 26N in the western 
Atlantic, with buoys reporting fresh to strong easterly winds. 
High seas up to 11 ft are observed east of the Bahamas. 

In the central Atlantic, the tail end of a cold front extends 
from 31N25W to 28.5N42W where a shearline continues to 27N50W. 
Scatterometer satellite data recently showed moderate to fresh NE
winds behind these features. South of 26N, a large area of 
moderate to fresh easterly winds is generating rough seas of 8-10
ft across the majority of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure over the western 
Atlantic will shift eastward and gradually weaken the next couple
of days. This will diminish the fresh to strong easterly winds 
and easterly swell across the offshore waters to the east of the 
Bahamas through Tue morning. Fresh to locally strong southerly 
flow is forecast for the NE Florida offshore waters Tue night to 
Wed night, resuming and expanding in areal coverage Fri night 
ahead of the next cold front.

$$
Stripling