000
AXNT20 KNHC 070422
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W 
to 04N17W to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W to 00N40W to 
01S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
occurring south of 05N between 11W-17W, and south of 03N between 
17W-45W. Scattered showers are south of 06N between 45W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Patchy marine fog is prevalent over portions of the northwest 
Gulf of Mexico off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. The gradient 
between a 1034 mb Bermuda High, centered east of Bermuda, and 
much lower pressure over Mexico, is inducing moderate to fresh 
SE winds across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Recent ASCAT 
satellite wind data show strong E winds over the Straits of 
Florida, while gentle winds are noted over the NE corner of the 
Gulf of Mexico. Strong E winds are likely occurring near the N 
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 4-7 ft across most of 
the basin, except up to 9 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, patchy areas of dense marine fog will continue 
for portions of the NW Gulf of Mexico shelf waters through this 
morning. High pressure over the Gulf basin will support fresh to 
strong winds and seas to 8 ft in the SE Gulf and Straits of 
Florida early this morning. The area of high pressure will shift 
eastward, enabling the next cold front to move into the NW Gulf 
today. The front will shift eastward and stall from the Florida 
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week. 
The front will gradually dissipate through Thu. Fresh to strong 
winds will prevail west of the front today and Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

No major precipitation areas are noted over the basin. However, 
isolated trade wind showers are seen from the northern Leeward 
Islands to Puerto Rico, as well as near Haiti, and to the south 
of eastern and central Cuba. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data 
show fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean. 
However, strong winds are likely occurring in the Windward 
Passage, to the south of Hispaniola, near the coast of Colombia 
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ASCAT shows mainly moderate E 
winds in the western Caribbean, west of 78W. Buoys over the 
eastern half of the Caribbean Sea are currently reporting seas 
of 7 ft. Seas are likely averaging 6 to 8 ft across the eastern 
and central Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean 
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail 
in the Windward Passage through tonight. Fresh to strong winds 
are expected south of Hispaniola through early Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weather is dominated by a 1034 mb high pressure centered 
east of Bermuda near 34N58W. Surface ridging extends WSW from 
the high to northern Florida, with mainly moderate anticyclonic 
winds north of 29N and west of 65W. Recent ASCAT satellite wind 
data show strong trades south of 26N and west of 65W, including 
over the Straits of Florida, SE Bahamas and central Bahamas. 
Seas of 8-12 ft are likely occurring in this area, east of the 
Bahamas. NOAA buoy 41046 near 23.8N and 68.4W is reporting E 
winds of 25 kt and significant wave heights of 11 ft.

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front stretches from 31N38.5W 
to 27N51W. A shear line continues from 27N51W to 22N65W. 
Isolated showers are within 180 nm either side of the cold front 
and shear line. ASCAT shows strong NE winds within 210 nm 
northwest of the shear line, where seas are likely 8-10 ft. 
Gentle anticyclonic winds prevail north of 27.5N and east of the 
cold front to 18W, due to surface ridging in the area. Seas of 
4-6 ft are likely in the gentle wind area. Fresh to locally 
strong trade winds are noted from about 06N-24N between Africa 
and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are in the 7-10 ft range.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure over the western 
Atlantic will shift eastward and gradually weaken the next 
couple of days. This will diminish the strong easterly winds and 
easterly swell over most of the forecast waters starting today. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected to continue through 
midweek. Moderate to fresh southerly flow will prevail east of 
Florida today through the end of the week.

$$
Hagen