785 AXNT20 KNHC 061034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Mar 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 00N33W to the coast of Brazil near 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04S to 03N between 14W and 40W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted near the ITCZ along the Brazil coast from 02S to 05N and W of 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between 1034 mb high pressure over the western Atlantic near 35N69W and much lower pressure over Mexico is producing moderate to fresh SE winds across most of the Gulf of Mexico. However, fresh to strong E winds are occurring over the Florida Straits and far SE Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 6-10 ft over the Florida Straits and SE Gulf. Seas are 3-6 ft elsewhere. Patchy fog has developed over the NW Gulf with visibility less than 2 nm at times. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over Gulf basin through today. Patchy fog has developed across the NW Gulf and is expected to continue through this morning. Fresh to strong winds with seas to 9 ft will prevail over the SE Gulf tonight, including the Straits of Florida. Fresh southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf tonight ahead of the next cold front. The cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and stall from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche through Wed night and dissipate by Thu. Fresh to strong winds will prevail west of the front Tue and Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery and Puerto Rico radar show a few showers between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and to the south of the Mona Passage. No major precipitation areas are noted over the remainder of the basin. Overnight scatterometer data showed mainly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong NE winds over the Windward Passage, near the coast of Colombia and to the south of Hispaniola. Strong winds are also likely occurring in the lee of Cuba. Seas of 5-7 are prevalent across most of the Caribbean, but may be as high as 9 ft in the Windward Passage and north of Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Windward Passage through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the lee of Cuba through tonight and the Dominican Republic through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trades, along with 8 to 9 ft seas in persistent northeast to east swell, will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong 1034 mb high pressure is N of the area near 36N66W. A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N47W to 28N52W. A shear line is analyzed from 28N52W to 23N67W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 150 nm NW of the shear line and front. Overnight ASCAT satellite wind data showed strong to near gale force NE to E winds over a large area, mainly west of a line from 26N60W to the Windward Passage. These wind speeds extend westward over the Bahamas and Florida Straits. To the north of 28.5N, fresh anticyclonic winds prevail. Seas of 10-13 ft prevail east of the Bahamas, within the strong to near- gale force area, and 6-8 ft elsewhere west of 60W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by 1028 mb high pressure near 33N28W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail north of 27N between 20W-48W, due to ridging from the high pressure. To the south, a large area of fresh to strong trades prevail S of 27N between the Cabo Verde Islands and 55W. Strong to near gale force NE winds prevail off Morocco and through the Canary Islands. Seas are generally 8-11 ft with an east swell across these strong wind areas. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to extend over the western Atlantic today. This will support fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas are also expected to build to 13 ft east of the Bahamas through tonight. Conditions will start to improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into the middle of next week. For the area east of the Lesser Antilles to 55W, moderate to fresh trades and 8 to 9 ft seas, in persistent northeast to east swell, will continue through at least Thu. $$ AReinhart