000 AXNT20 KNHC 051747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Mar 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure centered south of the Azores will continue to induce gale force northerly winds offshore of Morocco through at least 06/0000 UTC in the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Seas are up to 13-16 ft in the area. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo-France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 01N23W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ and monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging remains in place across the Gulf, sustaining generally quiescent conditions. Fresh trades persist in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits, according to surface reports and scatterometer data, with seas of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere in the Gulf, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail with seas of 3-5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over Gulf basin through this weekend. Fresh to strong, and seas to 9 ft, will prevail over the SE Gulf this weekend, including the Straits of Florida. Fresh southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf through Sun night ahead of the next cold front. The cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail west of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... According to the latest scatterometer data, gentle to moderate trades in the E Caribbean increase to moderate to fresh speeds in the W Caribbean. Locally strong NE winds are noted in the Windward Passage. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, except within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia in the south-central Caribbean where seas peak at 7 ft. Patches of low level moisture within the trade winds may produce isolated showers today. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Windward Passage through Mon night with fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades, along with 8 to 9 ft seas in persistent northeast to east swell, will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on an East Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France. The latest scatterometer data indicates that a shear line extends from the north coast of Hispaniola near 19N69W to 27N60W. Strong NE winds and 8-10 ft seas are located N of the shear line to 27N and W of the shear line to the Bahamas. A trough extends from 27N60W to 31N50W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm of both features. Elsewhere NW of the shear line, moderate to fresh NE to E winds persist, with strong E winds noted off the S Florida coast. Seas are 6-8 ft in this area, decreasing to 4-6 ft in far NW portions of the discussion area. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by high pressure north of the discussion area. According to the latest scatterometer data, fresh to locally strong trades are noted over most of the discussion area south of 27N, with 8-12 ft seas in NE swell. North of 27N, trade winds are mainly moderate with seas of 6-8 ft. In the far eastern Atlantic, strong to locally near gale force NE winds were detected off the coast of Mauritania, within an area from 19N to 21N east of 20W. For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will strengthen over the western Atlantic today and tomorrow. This will tighten the pressure gradient to support fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas are also expected to build to 13 ft east of the Bahamas tonight through Sun night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next week. $$ Mahoney