771 AXNT20 KNHC 041742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Mar 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Africa near 05N10W to 05N17W to 04N19W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 0N33W to 0N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 01W and 14W, and from 02S to 06N between 29W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging is across the Gulf, keeping tranquil conditions in place. Gentle to moderate return flow covers the basin, where wave heights are in the range of 1 to 3 ft. As for the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf basin. Gentle to moderate winds will increase to fresh to strong over the SE Gulf tonight, including the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over the remainder basin through Sun night. Otherwise, a cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from Alabama to the western Gulf on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered about 330 nm NE of the northern Bahamas tightens the pressure gradient in the Caribbean and supports moderate to fresh trades over the eastern half of the basin and fresh to strong NE winds in the south-central Caribbean as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Seas of 5 to 6 ft dominate this region of the basin, except for seas to 8 ft in the SW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are elsewhere west of 75W. As for the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage tonight through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are possible in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades along with persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from near 31N53W to 28N57W. A surface trough extends SW from the end of the front to the U.S. Virgin Islands. High pressure is building behind the boundary, leaving gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and subsiding seas ranging from 3 to 5 ft in its wake in the western Atlantic. A recent scatterometer pass noted fresh S-SW winds within 90 nm ahead of the front and north of 29N. In the far eastern Atlantic, surface high pressure of 1032 mb is centered just north of the area near 32N30W. A ridge extends from this high center west-southwest to 27N50W. A tight gradient between this high and relatively lower pressure to the south is sustaining a large area of fresh to strong east winds south of about 25N and east of 61W, including over the Lesser Antilles. Wave heights with these winds are in the 8 to 11 ft range. In the far northeast part of the area, strong northeast winds are over and near the Canary Islands, and south of the Islands to 20N between the coast of Africa and 25W. As for the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will continue weakening over the central Atlantic today. Strong high pressure will then build over the western Atlantic during the upcoming weekend. This will lead to a tight gradient which will bring fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas are also expected to build to 12 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night and continue through Sun night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next week. $$ Ramos