000 AXNT20 KNHC 040543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Mar 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 01N20W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues from 01N20W to 02S30W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 00N to 04N between 30W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure center of 1023 mb remains over the north-central Gulf, keeping tranquil conditions in place. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow covers the basin, except for moderate NE to E winds in the SE Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Altimeter data and buoy observations show wave heights in the range of 1 to 3 ft throughout, except for slighter higher wave heights of 3 to 4 ft in the SE Gulf and the eastern Bay of Campeche. As for the forecast, high pressure centered over the north-central Gulf will bring gentle to moderate winds across the basin through Fri. The pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the strong high pressure shifts over the western Atlantic. This will bring fresh to strong east winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf through Sun night. A cold front is forecasted to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from Alabama to the western Gulf Tue morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong E winds continuing within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia in the south-central Caribbean. Scatterometer data also showed areas of fresh to locally strong NE winds within the southern Caribbean, south of 15N, and within the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the rest of the eastern and central Caribbean, north of 15N. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted in the NW basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 4 to 7 ft in the central basin reaching heights of 8 ft off the coast of Colombia, and 3 ft or less in the NW basin. As for the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through at least Tue. Fresh to strong winds are also expected to continue in the Windward Passage Fri night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are possible in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades along with persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from near 31N53W to 28N57W. High pressure is building behind the boundary, leaving gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and subsiding seas ranging from 3 to 5 ft in its wake in the western Atlantic. A recent scatterometer pass noted fresh S-SW winds within 90 nm ahead of the front and north of 29N. A trough extends SW from the end of the front to the U.S. Virgin Islands. No significant convection is occurring with this boundary. In the far eastern Atlantic, strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered just north of the area near 32N29W. A ridge extends from this high center west-southwest to 26N52W. A tight gradient between this high and relatively lower pressure to the south is sustaining a large area of fresh to strong east winds south of about 25N and east of 61W, including over the Lesser Antilles. Wave heights with these winds are in the 8 to 11 ft range. In the far northeast part of the area, strong northeast winds are over and near the Canary Islands, and south of the Islands to 20N between the coast of Africa and 25W. As for the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will continue weakening over the central Atlantic overnight. Strong high pressure will then build over the western Atlantic during the upcoming weekend. This will lead to a tight gradient which will bring fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas are also expected to build to 12 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night and continue through Sun night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next week. $$ Mora