000 AXNT20 KNHC 040004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Mar 04 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 06N10W to 04N16W and to 02N17W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N17W to 01S30W to 01S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm south of the trough between 12W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-35W, within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W-37W, within 90 nm northwest of the trough between 16W-17W and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 17W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure, with attendant high center of 1022 mb over northern Alabama, covers the Gulf. The associated gradient is allowing for light to gentle mainly northeast to east winds to exist over the Gulf, with the exception of gentle to moderate east winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Altimeter data passes and buoy observations reveal wave heights in the range of 2-3 ft throughout, except for slighter higher wave heights of 3-4 ft in eastern Gulf and and eastern Bay of Campeche. As for the forecast, the high pressure will maintain little change little change to current conditions through Fri. The pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the strong high pressure shifts over the western Atlantic. This will bring fresh to strong east winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf through Sun night. A cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from Alabama to the western Gulf Tue morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic trough extends south into the eastern Caribbean from near the U.S. Virgin Islands south to 15N65W and to the coast of Venezuela near 10N65W. A trough is noted at 700 mb near the Atlantic trough. Patches of low-level moisture in the form of broken to scattered low clouds with possible isolated showers, are moving westward in the trade wind flow within 240 nm west of the trough north of 13N and east of trough north of 12N, reaching east to the Lesser Antilles. Similar type showers are in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Scattered to broken low clouds and isolated showers moving to the southwest are present over the western Caribbean south of 15N and west of 78W and over some parts of the northwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the south-central Caribbean, including within 90 nm of coast of Colombia. Wave heights there are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds are evident over the remainder of the sea. Wave heights elsewhere across the basin are in the 3-6 ft range, except for higher wave heights of 5-7 ft in the west-central Caribbean Sea, and lower wave heights of 2-4 ft north of 15N and west of 80W. As for the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through at least Tue. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage Fri night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are possible in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from near 31N54W to 25N60W. A trough extends from 25N60W southwestward to the northeastern Caribbean Sea. A 1022 mb high center is located southwest of Bermuda near 31N65W. High pressure is west of the front. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast mostly low and mid clouds, with possible isolated showers within 90 nm west of the trough from 20N to 25N and within 60 nm east of the trough from 21N to 25N. Broken low and mid-level clouds, with possible isolated showers are within 60 nm of the cold front from 25N to 27N, and along and within 60 nm east of the front from 27N to 31N. Gentle to moderate east winds are west of front and trough. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are ahead of the front to near 45W and north of 28N. The wave heights are peaking to 7 ft north of 30N and east of the front to near 51W. Over the western Atlantic, a trough extends from near 31N73W southwest to inland Florida near Fort Pierce. No significant convection is noted with this trough. In the far eastern Atlantic, strong high pressure of 1032 mb is centered just north of the area near 32N29W. A ridge extends from this high center west-southwest to 29N47W. A tight gradient between this high and relatively lower pressure to the south is sustaining a large area of fresh to strong east winds south of about 23N and east of 61W. Wave heights with these winds are in the 8-11 ft range. In the far northeast part of the area, strong northeast winds are over and near the Canary Islands, and south of the Islands to 20N between the coast of Africa and 25W. As for the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary and weaken over the central Atlantic by tonight. Strong high pressure will then build over the western Atlantic during the upcoming weekend. This will lead to a tight gradient which will bring fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Wave heights are also expected to build to 12 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night and continue through Sun night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next week. $$ Aguirre