000 AXNT20 KNHC 030543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00N24W to 01S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 12N between 10W and 16W. Similar convection is noted north of the ITCZ to 04N between 21W to 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1022 mb is centered over the north-central Gulf keeping anticyclonic flow in place over the basin. Moderate NE winds are noted off the SE Florida coast in the SE Gulf and the eastern Bay of Campeche, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Recent buoy and altimeter data note seas less than 3 ft elsewhere over the Gulf, where winds are light to gentle. For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the north-central Gulf will control the weather pattern over the region through the remainder of the week, resulting in gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across the forecast waters. The pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. This will bring fresh to occasionally strong east winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf through Sun night. A cold front may move into the NW Gulf Mon and reach from southeastern Louisiana to the western Gulf Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong winds continuing off of Colombia in the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the rest of the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted in the NW basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 4 to 7 ft in the central basin, and 3 ft or less in the NW basin. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds through Fri night, then expand in coverage over the central Caribbean into next week. Moderate to fresh trades along with persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N57W to 27N63W where the front begins to dissipate. A recent satellite scatterometer pass revealed, north of 29N, moderate W winds behind the front, and fresh SW winds ahead of the front. Recent altimeter data notes 8 ft seas north of 30N and east of 60W associated with the frontal boundary. High pressure building in the wake of the front is allowing for gentle anticyclonic flow over the rest of the western Atlantic, with moderate seas. High pressure ridging extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high near 32N30W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted north of 29N and E of 43W with seas 5 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted S of 29N and E of the Lesser Antilles with seas 8 to 11 ft in northeast-east swell. Strong NE winds are noted over the Canary Islands, and south of the Islands to 20N between the coast of Africa and 25W. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will stall and weaken over the southeast and south-central waters through Fri night as high pressure builds behind it. Stronger high pressure will then build over the western Atlantic during the upcoming weekend, with the resultant tight gradient leading to fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas will build to around 11 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night with the increasing easterly flow. Conditions improve early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next week. $$ Mora