000 AXNT20 KNHC 021016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Mar 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 01N30W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of Liberia from 05N- 06N E of 11W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 11W-17W. Similar convection is noted near 01N32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure centered over the north-central Gulf dominates the Gulf region producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas are 3-5 ft over the SW and SE parts of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 1-3 ft are elsewhere. An area of low level clouds, with possible areas of light rain remain over the SW Gulf while cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted across much of the basin, more concentrated over the SE Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the north-central Gulf will control the weather pattern over the region through the remainder of the week, resulting in gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across the forecast waters. The pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. This will bring fresh to occasionally strong east winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite derived wind data indicate gentle to moderate N winds across the Caribbean N of 15N and W of 80W. These N winds spread south and increase to moderate to locally fresh S of 15N and W of 81W to the coast of Nicaragua. These northerly winds are associated with a ridge extending across the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean and northern Central America. The N winds are advecting stratocumulus clouds from the SE Gulf of Mexico into western Cuba, and are also transporting patches of low level moisture across the Gulf of Honduras into Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades are noted over the south-central Caribbean, with fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 3-5 ft across much of the basin, except 6-8 ft near the coast of Colombia. A diffluent pattern aloft supports some cloudiness with possible showers over the central Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure will begin to build north of the Caribbean Sea today as the low pressure located over the western Atlantic departs. This will bring the return of the fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia, by tonight. Moderate to fresh trades along with persistent NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... W of 65W, a cold front extends from a 1008 mb low located NE of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. A surface trough is analyzed W of the front and extends from 30N68W to 28N79W. A well defined swirl of low clouds is along the trough axis near 28N72W. An ASCAT pass indicates the cyclonic circulation associated with this swirl of low clouds that is producing moderate to fresh winds. S of 27N and W of 65W, mainly light and variable winds prevail. Seas are 6-9 ft N of 27N based on altimeter data and buoy observations, and 4-6 ft E of the Bahamas. Patches of low level clouds are noted between the Bahamas and eastern Cuba. For the forecast west of 65W, strong high pressure will build across the western Atlantic in the wake of the aforementioned cold front that will continue to move eastward. Then, the pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen across the western Atlantic during the upcoming weekend leading to fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas will build to 10 or 11 ft E of the Bahamas by Sat night with the increasing easterly flow. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure located near 31N31W. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over W Africa supports fresh to strong northerly winds near the coast of Morocco and between the Canary Islands. These winds are generating rough seas of 10-12 ft. Fresh to locally strong trades are noted per scatterometer data N of the ITCZ to about 22N and E of 50W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 8-12 ft within these persisting winds. For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong trades and 8-12 ft seas will continue through at least Fri over the tropical Atlantic east of 55W, as well as over the far eastern Atlantic from the Cabo Verde Islands northward to beyond 31N. High pressure will strengthen near the Azores on Thu. As a result, strong to gale force N winds and seas building to 12-17 ft are likely near the coast Morocco Fri and Fri night. $$ GR