000 AXNT20 KNHC 020508 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Mar 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 02N30W to 02N40W. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the monsoon trough axis. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure centered 30 nm offshore western Louisiana is allowing for tranquil conditions and anticyclonic flow to prevail over the basin. Recent scatterometer data and buoy observations found moderate NW-N winds in the northeast Gulf, N-NE winds in the eastern and southern eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate E winds west of 90W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the southern Gulf and Yucatan Channel. Seas are 2 to 3 ft in the northern Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the north- central Gulf will control the weather regime over the region through the remainder of the week, resulting in gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across the forecast waters. The pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward to the eastern Gulf. This will bring fresh east winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the N coast of Honduras. A few light showers may be occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are noted off western Colombia and eastern Panama. The low pressure system associated with the stationary front has weakened the pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea. As a result, mainly fresh trade winds prevail near the coast of Colombia. Moderate NE winds prevail across the Caribbean west of 75W with 3 to 5 ft seas, except within the Yucatan Channel, seas are up to 6 ft. Moderate E flow is east of 75W with 4 to 6 ft seas. A recent scatterometer pass noted winds transitioning to moderate to fresh in the southern Caribbean sea, south of 15N. Due to the weakened pressure gradient, mainly fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will continue near the coast of Colombia this week. Moderate to fresh trades along with persistent NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1008 mb low pressure just north of the area, in the vicinity of 32N67W, extends a cold front SW across the area from the low to the central Bahamas. A surface trough behind the front extends westward from the low, to near 29N78W. A recent scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong NNE winds are north of the trough and fresh to strong NW winds are south of the trough to 27N. Strong southerly flow is noted ahead of the cold front, north of 27N to near 55W. Elsewhere west of the front, moderate NW-W winds are noted. Seas between 27N and 31N are 6 to 9 ft, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere west of 65W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure centered near 32N31W. Gentle winds near the ridge axis prevail north of 27N between 25W-55W. To the south, fresh to strong trades continue over the tropical Atlantic, from the ITCZ to 25N between 25W-55W. East of 25W, fresh to strong NE winds extend from the Cabo Verde Islands to the Canary Islands. Seas are 8 to 12 ft within the area of fresh to strong winds, and 5 to 8 ft across the remainder of the area north of 25N and east of 55W. For the forecast west of 65W, strong high pressure will build across the western Atlantic in the wake of the front, leading to fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters by this weekend. Seas will build E of the Bahamas on Sat with the increasing easterly flow. For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong trades and 8-12 ft seas will continue through at least Fri over the tropical Atlantic east of 55W, as well as over the far eastern Atlantic from the Cabo Verde Islands northward to beyond 31N. High pressure will strengthen east of the Azores Thu night into Fri. As a result, near gale to gale force N winds and seas building to 12-17 ft are likely near the coast Morocco Fri and Fri night. $$ Mora