000 AXNT20 KNHC 012306 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W to 02N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 24W to 39W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 02N to 05.5N between 08W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails over the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure centered near Freeport, Texas. Moderate N winds prevail over most of the Gulf, except for light to gentle variable winds in the NW Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft across the southern Gulf and Yucatan Channel. Seas are 2-3 ft in the northern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure centered over eastern Texas will control the weather regime across the region through the remainder of the week, resulting in gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across the forecast waters. The pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward to the eastern Gulf. This will bring fresh east winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating cold front extends from eastern Cuba to the N coast of Honduras. A few light showers may be occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are noted off western Colombia and eastern Panama. Moderate N winds prevail over the NW Caribbean to the west of 84W, where seas are 3-5 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are within 90 nm of the coast of NE Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, where seas are 5-6 ft. Moderate trades are elsewhere south of 16N with 3-5 ft seas. Gentle winds prevail north of 16N and east of 84W, with light and variable winds from the Windward Passage to the area south of Cuba. Seas are 1-3 ft north of 17N and east of 83W. Intensifying low pressure over the western Atlantic has weakened the pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea. As a result, mainly fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this week, with weaker winds elsewhere through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage and to the south of Hispaniola Fri night and persist through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1010 mb low pressure just north of area, in the vicinity of 32N70W, extends a cold front SW across the area from the low to the central Bahamas. Gale force winds associated with the low pressure are occurring north of 31N. Strong NW winds are likely occurring north of 30N and west of the front to 75W. Moderate to fresh winds associated with this system are mostly north of 26N and east of 77W. Seas are 8-11 ft north of 28N between 69W-79W. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail west of 79W, off the coast of Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 28N between 59W- 68W, to the east of the low pressure. Gentle winds prevail south of 25N and west of 68W. Seas are 4-5 ft in this area to the east of the Bahamas. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure centered near 32N30W. Gentle winds near the ridge axis prevail north of 27N between 25W-55W. To the south, fresh to strong trades continue over the tropical Atlantic, from the ITCZ to 25N between 25W-55W, with moderate trades west of 55W. East of 25W, fresh to strong NE winds extend from the Cabo Verde Islands to the Canary Islands. Seas are 8-12 ft from 03N-26N between 35W-55W, and east of 35W to the African coast. Seas are 5-8 ft across the remainder of the area north of 26N and east of 65W, except for 8-9 ft north of 29N between 50W- 63W. For the forecast west of 65W, the low pressure near 32N70W will lift well to the N of the forecast waters, with the cold front reaching from near 31N68W to eastern Cuba by late tonight. Strong high pressure will build across the western Atlantic in the wake of the front, leading to fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters by this weekend. Seas will build E of the Bahamas on Sat with the increasing easterly flow. For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong trades and 8-12 ft seas will continue through at least Fri over the tropical Atlantic east of 55W, as well as over the far eastern Atlantic from the Cabo Verde Islands northward to beyond 31N. High pressure will strengthen east of the Azores Thu night into Fri. As a result, near gale to gale force N winds and seas building to 12-17 ft are likely near the coast Morocco Fri and Fri night. $$ Hagen