000 AXNT20 KNHC 011013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Recent scatterometer data provide observations of gale force winds in association with a 1014 mb low pressure located E of Florida near 30N78W. A cold front extends from the low center to the Straits of Florida. The low pressure will move NE today, with an area of gale force winds affecting the Atlantic forecast waters N of 30N and W of 72W through this evening. Seas of 9 to 13 ft are expected within the area of gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 01N30W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 03N between 22W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf. Winds and seas associated with this frontal boundary have finally diminished over the SW Gulf. Latest observations indicate NW winds in the 15 to 20 kt there with seas of 6-7 ft. A 1025 mb high pressure is near the coast of Texas. A recent scatterometer pass revealed mainly moderate northerly winds across the central Gulf where seas are 4 to 6 ft. An area of low level clouds with areas of light rain remain over the SW Gulf while cold air stratocumulus clouds dominate the N waters. A narrow and broken band of clouds is over the SE Gulf associated with the front. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf region the remainder of the work-week resulting in gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the forecast waters. The pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen across the Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming weekend. This will bring fresh E winds over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The developing low pressure over the western Atlantic has weakened the pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea. As a result, fresh trade winds are noted in the south central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trades cover the remainder of the E and central parts of the basin. In the NW Caribbean, moderate northerly winds are seen across the Yucatan Channel extending southward along the Yucatan peninsula to about 19N. Seas are 4-5 ft within these winds. Seas are 4-6 ft across the east and central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are observed across the region, more concentrated over the central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, associated with strong upper-level westerly winds continue to affect the Windward Islands. For the forecast, mainly fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia this week. Moderate to fresh trades along with persistent NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low pressure system located E of Florida near 30N78W is generating gale force winds and building seas. Please read the Special Features section above for more details. The attendant cold front extends from the low center to the Straits of Florida. A narrow band of clouds is related to the front. Farther E, a surface trough is analyzed and extends from 29N61W to 22N68W. Some low level clouds are associated with this feature. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure located near 31N29W. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over W Africa supports near gale-force northerly winds in the Meteo-France marine zone of Agadir, and also between the Canary Islands. These winds are generating rough seas of 10-11 ft. Fresh to locally strong trades are noted per scatterometer data N of the ITCZ to about 22N and E of 50W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 8-10 ft within these winds. For the forecast west of 65W, A cold front extends from a 1014 mb low pressure located near 30N78W to the Straits of Florida. The low is producing gale force winds and building seas. This system will move NE today, with an area of gale force winds affecting the N waters through this evening. The associated cold front will continue moving eastward across the region reaching the SE waters by tonight. High pressure is expected to build across the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong easterly flow may develop by this weekend as another cold front sags southward into the area. For the forecast east of 65W, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across region over the next two or three days. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressure over W Africa, and also in the vicinity of the ITCZ will maintain a belt of fresh to locally strong trade winds across the tropical Atlantic, mainly E of 50W today. These winds will reach 55W on Wed. $$ GR