000
AXNT20 KNHC 010553
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A 1014 mb low pressure is east of 
Florida near 30N78W. A cold front extends SW from the low to the 
Florida Straits to western Cuba and continues into the NW 
Caribbean. A recent satellite scatterometer pass indicated winds 
have reached gale force within 60 nm of the northern semicircle 
of the low, north of 30N, where seas are 8 to 10 ft and 
building. Gale force winds will continue north of 30N between 
78W and 74W as the low moves east-northeastward today. Seas of 
10 to 13 ft are expected with the gale force winds. Please read 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast 
of Guinea near 10N14W and continues SW to 03N17W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03NN17W to 01N30W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 18W and 
34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main feature in the Gulf of Mexico is a 1025 mb high 
offshore east TX, allowing for gentle to moderate winds and 
slight seas. Elsewhere, a recent scatterometer pass revealed 
mainly uniform moderate northerly flow across the central Gulf 
where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are likely 
in the eastern Gulf and within the Bay of Campeche where seas 
are 5 to 7 ft. Isolated showers are noted in the SW Gulf south 
of 21N and west of 92W. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build over the 
southeastern U.S. during the middle and latter parts of the 
week, resulting in gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the 
forecast waters. Fresh E to SE winds could develop over the 
eastern Gulf by this weekend as high pressure shifts eastward. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trade winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea, south 
of 13N near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. 
Gentle to moderate trades cover the remainder of the E and 
central parts of the basin. In the NW Caribbean, a weakening 
cold front stretches from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula 
near 20N. Light to gentle N winds are ahead of the front north 
of 15N and east of 85W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are 
behind the front within the Yucatan basin noted in a recent 
scatterometer pass. Seas range from 4 to 6 ft across the basin. 

For the forecast, mainly fresh to occasionally strong trade 
winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia this week. Moderate
to fresh trades along with persistent NE to E swell will impact 
the waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. 
Elsewhere, a weakening cold front that extends from western Cuba 
to near the Yucatan peninsula will dissipate over the NW Caribbean
by Tue. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details about 
the ongoing gale warning in the western Atlantic. 

The cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure 
with gale force winds is bringing strong to near gale force NW 
winds behind the boundary, south of 30N. Ahead of the front 
strong to near gale force S-SE winds are occurring our to 75W. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm ahead of 
the boundary, as well as along a warm front extending from the 
low along 29N out to 73W. Elsewhere in the western Atlantic, 
winds are gentle with slight seas, building to moderate north of 
28N. 

Farther east, a 1031 mb high pressure centered near 32N29W 
extends a surface ridge to the western Atlantic near 26N65W. 
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds noted in scatterometer 
imagery are located within a few hundred nm of the ridge axis. 
Moderate to fresh trades are south of 18N between 40W and the 
Lesser Antilles along with moderate seas. Fresh to strong trades 
prevail from the ITCZ to 25N, east of 40W to the coast of Africa 
where rough seas are up to 10 ft. Strong to near gale force NE 
winds prevail offshore of Morocco, Western Sahara, and 
Mauritania, and surround the Canary Islands.  

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front and associated low 
will produce strengthening winds and building seas as it moves 
across the northern portion tonight through Tue night, with 
gale-force winds expected N of 30N on Tue. The low is forecast 
to pass north of the forecast area by midweek, but the cold 
front will continue moving eastward across the region. High 
pressure is expected to build across the western Atlantic late 
this week. Fresh to strong easterly flow may develop by this 
weekend as another cold front sags southward into the area. 

$$
MORA