000 AXNT20 KNHC 282252 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A 1013 mb low pressure is east of Florida near 29N79W. A stationary front extends ENE from the low to 31N72W and a cold front extends SW from the low to western Cuba. Winds are currently 25-30 kt in the northern semicircle of the low, and seas are currently 7-9 ft there. The low will move east-northeastward and develop gale force winds early Tue morning, when the low reaches a position near 31N74W. Gale force winds are expected north of 30N between 77W-68W Tue through Tue night as the low moves ENE. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are expected with the gale force winds. Strong to near gale force winds are expected elsewhere north of 28.5N west of 65W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 01N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-04N between 10W- 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front is located over the Yucatan Channel, exiting the basin now. 1031 mb high pressure is centered over SE Texas. Strong NW winds are noted in the western Bay of Campeche, south of 21N between 94W-96W, with seas 7-10 ft. Mainly moderate N winds prevail elsewhere, with 3-6 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the SW Gulf will diminish and seas will subside tonight as the weakening cold front near the Yucatan Channel passes SE of the region. High pressure will build over the southeastern U.S. during the middle and latter parts of the week, resulting in gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the forecast waters. Fresh E to SE winds could develop over the eastern Gulf by this weekend as high pressure shifts eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh trade winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate winds cover the reminder of the E and central parts of the basin. Light to gentle winds are in the western Caribbean Sea. However, moderate to locally fresh N winds have begun filtering in off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. The sea heights range from 5-7 ft near the coast of Colombia, 3-5 ft elsewhere over the eastern and central basin, and 1-4 ft in the western Caribbean. Patches of low level moisture, and isolated passing rainshowers, are embedded in the trade wind flow over the south-central Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, mainly fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this week. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front that extends from western Cuba to near the Yucatan Channel will dissipate over the NW Caribbean by Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details about the gale warning in the western Atlantic. Some scattered moderate convection is occurring to the north of the aforementioned low pressure, mainly west of 75W, off NE Florida and Georgia. Elsewhere, a 1030 mb high pressure centered near 32N29W extends a surface ridge to 27N50W to 27N70W to the NW Bahamas. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are located within a few hundred nm of the ridge axis. Moderate to fresh SW winds are likely occurring N of 29N between 47W-57W. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 22N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong trades prevail from the ITCZ to 23N, east of 50W to the coast of Africa. Strong NE winds prevail offshore of Morocco, Western Sahara and Mauritania. Seas are 4-7 ft west of 55W and 7-11 ft east of 55W. For the forecast west of 65W, the low pressure will produce strengthening winds and building seas as it moves across the northern portion of the area tonight through Tue night, with gale-force winds expected N of 30N on Tue. The low is forecast to pass north of the forecast area by midweek, but the cold front will continue moving eastward across the region. High pressure is expected to build across the western Atlantic late this week. Fresh to strong easterly flow may develop by this weekend as another cold front sags southward into the area. For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong winds will prevail for the next several days from the Canary Islands extending southwestward over the eastern Atlantic, and extending westward over the tropical Atlantic to 50W, with 8-12 ft seas over this large expanse of ocean. Moderate to fresh trades along with persistent NE to E swell will impact the waters between 50W and the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. Looking ahead, strengthening high pressure to the southeast of the Azores could induce near-gale to gale force N winds late this week offshore of Morocco. $$ Hagen