000 AXNT20 KNHC 280518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Feb 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front spilling south through the western Gulf is being Followed by strong to minimal gale-force N-NW winds. The Gale force winds will continue offshore Veracruz tonight through early Monday morning. Scatterometer data indicated the presence of 30 to 35 knot winds south of Brownsville, Texas to Cabo Rojo, Mexico. Altimeter data shows seas up to 12 feet within this area. Then, fresh to strong winds will persist in the same area on Mon. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force N to NE winds are occurring within about 120 nm of the coast of Morocco in the Meteo-France marine zone Agadir. Gale force winds will persist tonight. Seas are about 12 to 13 ft in the gale force winds area. After the gales diminish, strong to near gale force N winds will persist through Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at the website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from 00N19W to 03N37W to 00N49W. A surface trough extends along 39W north of the ITCZ to 07N. Scattered moderate convection is noted along The ITCZ from 00N to 06N between 15W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning near Veracruz, Mexico. A 1015 mb low pressure is centered in Southeast Georgia with a cold front extending southwest to the central Gulf near 24N90W to 20N94W where it transitions to a stationary front near Veracruz, Mexico. Stratus clouds are observed west of the front, south of 28N. Strong to gale force N winds are occurring west of the front from 19N-25N, where seas are likely 8-12 ft. Fresh N winds and 3-7 ft seas are elsewhere NW of the cold front. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-3 ft prevail over the southeast Gulf ahead of the front. For the forecast, a cold front extends from the western Florida panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. The front will continue to move eastward reaching from N Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Mon morning, and from South Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. The front is forecast to reach the Straits of Florida on Tue, then western Cuba. Minimal gale force northerly winds are expected over the SW Gulf, near the Veracruz region, tonight. Then, fresh to strong winds will persist in the same area through Monday afternoon. High pressure will settle across the basin by mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the central Caribbean, with fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh winds are noted in the Mona Passage. Moderate winds are prevalent over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are found in the western Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Scattered light showers are streaming across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Jamaica. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted in the Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades are also expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the Meteo-France Gale Warning near the coast of Morocco. A surface ridge extends across the subtropical Atlantic Ocean from a 1029 MB high pressure near 30N29W to 26N62W to the coast of Florida near 27N80W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail near the ridge axis, with seas 5-6 ft. Fresh to strong trades prevail east of 50W from the ITCZ to 22N, where seas are 7-10 ft. Some light showers are noted within 270 nm on either side of a line from Trinidad to 23N37W, due to an upper-level trough in the area. For the forecast west of 65W, a reinforcing high pressure will allow a cold front to move across the northern forecast waters on Mon, with a low pressure possibly developing along the front E of Florida by Mon evening. The low is forecast to move NE with the front reaching the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by Tue. Then, the front is forecast to move across the SE waters on Wed. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front and near the low-pressure late Mon through Tue night. For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, mainly east of 55W and south of 22N, through the next several days, with seas in the 8-11 ft range. $$ MTorres