000 AXNT20 KNHC 262221 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale- force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Winds will diminish to below gale force prior to sunrise Sun morning. Seas will range from 8 to 10 ft during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 01N21W to 01N36W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N-05N between 06W-14W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 00N-04N between 15W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from north- central Florida near 29N83W to weak 1023 mb low pressure off the coast of Texas near 27N96W. The stationary front then continues S from 27N96W to Tuxpan Mexico near 20N96.5W. Low stratus and areas of dense fog prevail within about 60 to 90 nm of the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana. An oil platform located about 30 nm offshore the middle Texas coast is reporting a visibility of 0.7 miles. Beach webcams from Galveston show near zero visibility. Fresh NE winds are west and north of the front, off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 4-6 ft near the front offshore of Louisiana, Texas and Mexico. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere, except for 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, low stratus and areas of dense fog will persist over the western Gulf shelf waters through Sun morning. The front will retrograde toward the Gulf coast tonight. A reinforcing push will move the front eastward again on Sun, with the front gradually moving southeast of the basin early next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are possible in the west-central and southwest Gulf behind the front early Sun into Mon. High pressure will settle across the basin by mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over much of the Caribbean, except for strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, except for 6-8 ft off Colombia and eastern Panama. Mid to upper-level ridging dominates the western Caribbean. However, patches of trade wind cumulus with possible isolated showers are noted near Jamaica and also just offshore of NE Honduras and northern Nicaragua. Over the eastern Caribbean, a surface trough extends from 15N62W to beyond 19N61.5W. An upper-level trough axis extends from 20N61W across the Virgin Islands to near 17N75W. Cloudiness with a few showers prevails over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows a plume of enhanced atmospheric moisture that has moved into the SE Caribbean over the last day or two. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse through the approach to the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through early Sun. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean through Sun morning. Expect the aforementioned area of enhanced atmospheric moisture to move westward across the southern Carribean into early next week, which may increase rainshowers over the southern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N78W to Titusville Florida near 29N81W. High pressure of 1025 mb is noted just ahead of the front near 29.5N77W. Light to gentle winds prevail across the region north of 27N with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail farther south, from the central Bahamas to Cuba and Hispaniola. Seas are 5-7 ft east of the Bahamas. Farther east, a 1028 mb high pressure is analyzed near 31N35W. A surface ridge with light to gentle winds extends westward from the high to 28.5N55W to the 1025 mb high near 29.5N 77W. Seas are 5-6 ft near the ridge axis. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail from 08N-23N between 35W-55W, where seas are 8-10 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over much of the eastern Atlantic, east of 35W, where seas are 7-11 ft. An upper-level trough axis extends from 27N49W to the Virgin Islands. Scattered light to moderate showers prevail east of the upper-trough axis, roughly from 13N-24N between 40W-60W. For the forecast west of 65W, the weak cold front extending from 31N78W to 29N81W will continue moving across the NE Florida waters where it will stall. A reinforcing push will move the front southeast into early next week, with low pressure possibly developing along it east of northern Florida. The low would then drag the front southeast through mid-week. Fresh to strong winds are possible north of 29N during the early to middle part of the week. For the forecast east of 65W, moderate to fresh trades east of the Lesser Antilles will prevail through the remainder of the weekend, maintaining seas of 7-9 ft west of 55W. Strong to locally near gale force NE winds will develop tonight between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco, generating seas of 10 to 12 ft. These conditions will persist into Mon. $$ Hagen