000 AXNT20 KNHC 260907 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Feb 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale- force near the coast of Colombia through early Sunday. Seas will range from 8 to 11 ft during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 03N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 03N18W to 01N29W where it fragments due to an embedded trough from 06N29W to 01S33W, then resumes west of the trough from 01N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed on satellite imagery from 02S to 05N between 27W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from northern Floridan near 30N83W to 27N90W where it stalls to south of Tampico, Mexico near 21N97W. Low stratus clouds, with bases around 1,000 ft prevail west of the front, extending off the Louisiana and Texas coasts. Earlier scatterometer wind data indicated fresh to strong winds offshore of Veracruz Mexico with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere west of the front. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are prevalent behind the frontal boundary, while 2 to 4 ft are noted elsewhere. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail elsewhere in the basin, except locally moderate to fresh in the SE Gulf including through the Straits of Florida, and offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the front will slowly move east and extend from the big bend of Florida to to the SW Gulf by later this morning before retrograding toward the Gulf coast later today into tonight. A reinforcing push will move the front eastward again by Sun, with the front gradually moving southeast of the basin early next week. High pressure will settle across the basin by mid- week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. A surface trough stretches across the Windward Islands and into the SE Caribbean Sea, resulting in a large area of cloudiness and isolated showers. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Earlier scatterometer satellite data depicted fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and in the south- central Caribbean, outside the Gale Warning area. Fresh to strong trades are also occurring in the Windward Passage and in the offshore waters of southern Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh trades are present elsewhere in the basin. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are present in the central, SW and W Caribbean Sea, while seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the E Caribbean. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of Colombia through early today, and again tonight into early Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the lee of Cuba through early today. Similar winds will pulse through the approach to the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through early Sun. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean through Sun morning. A weak cold front will approach the NW Caribbean early next week. Fresh to strong trades east of the Lesser Antilles will prevail through this morning, then moderate to fresh through the remainder of the weekend, helping to build seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1024 mb is located northeast of the Bahamas near 29N83W. A pair of surface troughs are relatively nearby, one south of the high from 25N72W to near the Windward Passage including across the Turks and Caicos Islands, and another to the southeast of the high from 27N61W to 21N64W. A few showers are seen in the vicinity of the troughs. The pressure gradient west of the trough near the Turks and Caicos Islands is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft are north of 27N and west of 60W under a ridge axis extending from the high. To the east, a strong 1028 mb high pressure is centered just north of the area near 32N38W in the central Atlantic dominating the central and eastern Atlantic. The tight pressure gradient as the result the strong high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics allow for fresh to strong anticyclonic winds S of 27N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas greater than 8 ft prevail south of 27N and east of 60W. Northerly swell is causing seas greater than 12 ft over the NE Atlantic, north of 26N and east of 23W. The rest of the basin enjoys moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4 to 8 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging off the Florida coast and troughing south of 27N will support moderate to fresh winds south of 26N through early morning. The pressure gradient will relax later today allowing for improving marine conditions. A weak cold front may move into the NE Florida waters today where it will stall. A reinforcing push will move the front southeast into early next week, with low pressure possibly developing along it east of northern Florida. The low would then drag the front southeast through mid-week. For the forecast east of 65W, strong to locally near gale force NE winds will develop over the weekend between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco, generating seas of 10 to 13 ft. These conditions will persist into Mon. $$ Lewitsky