000 AXNT20 KNHC 260442 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Feb 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale- force near the coast of Colombia through early Sunday. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show strong to gale-force trades affecting the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia. Seas will range from 9 to 11 ft during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W and continues to 04N15W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N15W to 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed on satellite imagery from 02S to 05N and between 23W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 26/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida to a little more than a hundred miles south of SE Louisiana. The cold front then transitions into a stationary front that continues through the western Gulf before spreading southward toward the state of Veracruz, Mexico. Low stratus clouds, with bases around 1,000 ft prevail west of the front, extending off the Louisiana and Texas coasts. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to strong N-NE winds prevail west of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are also occurring in the offshore waters of Veracruz. Seas of 4-7 ft are prevalent behind the frontal boundary, while 2-4 ft are noted elsewhere. An altimeter satellite pass captured seas up to 8 ft in the SW Gulf a few hours ago. Fairly tranquil weather conditions and moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds prevail elsewhere else in the basin. For the forecast, patchy fog is noted ahead of the front in the NE Gulf of Mexico as well as behind the front, along with fresh to strong winds south of 26N and west of the front. The front will slowly move east and extend from the big bend of Florida to to the SW Gulf by Sat morning before retrograding toward the Gulf coast later on Sat. A reinforcing push will move the front eastward again by Sun, with the front gradually moving southeast of the basin early next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are possible in the western Gulf behind the front early Sun into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. A surface trough stretches across the Windward Islands and into the SE Caribbean Sea, resulting in a large area of cloudiness and isolated showers. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Recent scatterometer satellite data depict fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and in the south- central Caribbean, outside the Gale Warning area. Fresh to strong trades are also occurring in the Windward Passage and in the offshore waters of southern Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh trades are present elsewhere in the basin. Seas of 3-6 ft are present in the central, SW and W Caribbean Sea, while seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the E Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the lee of Cuba through early Sat. Similar winds will pulse through the approach to the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through early Sun. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean through Sun morning. A weak cold front will approach the NW Caribbean early next week. Fresh to strong trades will develop east of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then moderate to fresh through the remainder of the weekend, helping to build seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is found along 59W from 20N to 26N, a few hundred miles NE of the Leeward Islands. The trough is the surface reflection of a large upper level low that has been slowly moving westward over the last few days. A few showers are seen east of the surface trough. A strong 1031 mb high pressure is centered near 33N39W in the central Atlantic dominating the central and eastern Atlantic. The tight pressure gradient as the result the strong high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics allow for fresh to strong anticyclonic winds S of 27N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas greater than 8 ft prevail S of 28N and E of 60W. Northerly swell is causing seas greater than 12 ft over the NE Atlantic, N of 28N and E of 25W. A recent altimeter satellite pass show seas up to 15 ft about 175 nm W of the Canary Islands. The rest of the basin enjoys moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging off the Florida coast and a trough of low pressure near 60W will support moderate to fresh winds south of 25N. The pressure gradient will continue to relax tonight, allowing for improving marine conditions. A weak cold front may move into the NE Florida waters Sat where it will stall. A reinforcing push will move the front southeast into early next week, with low pressure possibly developing along it east of northern Florida. The low would then drag the front southeast through mid-week. For the forecast east of 65W, strong to locally near gale force NE winds will develop over the weekend between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco, generating seas of 10-13 ft. These conditions will persist into Mon. $$ DELGADO