000 AXNT20 KNHC 252335 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale- force near the coast of Colombia tonight and again Sat night. Seas will range from 9 to 11 ft during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 04N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N18W to 02N22W to 03N38W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 05N between 24W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 25/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from near Panama City, Florida near 30N86W to 29N87W to 27.5N91W. A stationary front continues through the western Gulf from 27.5N91W to 25.5N96W to 21N96W to south of Tampico, Mexico, near 21N97W. Low stratus clouds, with bases around 1,000 ft prevail west of the front, extending off the Louisiana and Texas coasts. Strong N winds prevail west of the front off the coast of NE Mexico. Fresh NE winds are prevalent off the Texas and Louisiana coasts, northwest of the front. Mainly gentle winds prevail south and east of the front, except near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the Florida Straits, where moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail. Recent altimeter data from 25/1630 UTC show seas of 8-9 ft over the western Gulf, west of the front, although seas have likely subsided to 6-7 ft now over the NW Gulf. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail south and east of the front, except up to 5 ft toward the approaches to the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the front will slowly move east and extend from the big bend of Florida to the SW Gulf by Sat morning before retrograding toward the Gulf coast later on Sat. A reinforcing push will move the front eastward again by Sun, with the front gradually moving southeast of the basin early next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the west-central and SW Gulf behind the front Sun afternoon into early Mon. Some low overcast ceilings, with cloud bases below 1,000 ft, are likely for portions of the waters off Texas through Sun morning. The cloud bases could sink to below 200 ft in some spots, creating patchy areas of dense fog. Patchy dense marine fog is also possible tonight through Sat morning offshore the Florida Big Bend area. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. Strong trades persist near the coast of Colombia in the south- central Caribbean, with seas of 8-9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over much of the central and western Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 3-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean outside of the area of strong winds, and 4-6 ft in the western Caribbean. A westward-moving surface trough located just east of the Lesser Antilles is spreading increased moisture over the Windward Islands and southeast Caribbean. The blended Total Precipitable Water product shows the abundant moisture in the area. A mid to upper-level trough extends from 21N59W SW to the coast of Venezuela. Cloudiness with possible isolated showers are occurring south of 15N and east of 66W. Most of the remainder of the Caribbean is relatively dry, except for some possible isolated trade wind showers extending southward from Jamaica to 15N. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of Colombia tonight and Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the lee of Cuba through early Sat. Similar winds will pulse through the approach to the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through early Sun. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean through Sun morning. A weak cold front will approach the NW Caribbean early next week. Fresh to strong trades will develop east of the Lesser Antilles tonight, behind a westward moving surface trough, before diminishing to moderate to fresh through the remainder of the weekend. Enhanced moisture should lead to an increase in rainshowers over the southeast Caribbean this weekend. The enhanced moisture will migrate to the south-central and southwest Caribbean for the early part of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three surface troughs are analyzed in the W Atlantic with the following positions: 30N63W to 22N68W, 23N57W to 20N59W, and 16N58W to 11N61W. Scattered showers are noted from 10N-24N between 41W-60W. The showers are being enhanced by an upper-level low centered near 21N59W. A 1032 mb high pressure near 32N38W extends a surface ridge westward to 31N68W, and to the coast of east- central Florida. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE trades prevail through the central and SE Bahamas and Windward Passage. Fresh to locally strong trades prevail over a large area of the tropical Atlantic from 07N-24N between 25W-56W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft across this area. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft west of 67W and north of 26N. Seas are 6-8 ft south and east of that area to 56W. Large seas are occurring over the NE Atlantic, north of 26N and east of 35W due to large northerly swell propagating into the area. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging off the Florida coast and a trough of low pressure near 66W will support moderate to fresh winds E of 70W. The pressure gradient will continue to relax tonight, allowing for improving marine conditions. A weak cold front may move into the NE Florida waters Sat where it will stall. A reinforcing push will move the front southeast into early next week, with low pressure possibly developing along it east of northern Florida. The low would then drag the front southeast through mid-week. For the forecast east of 65W, strong to locally near gale force NE winds will develop over the weekend between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco, generating seas of 10-13 ft. These conditions will persist into Mon. $$ Hagen