000 AXNT20 KNHC 231725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging near Bermuda and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale-force near the coast of Colombia nightly through Fri night. The sea heights will range from 10-11 ft within the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N30W to 02N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 26W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure west of Bermuda extends a ridge axis SW across the Gulf. Moderate to fresh return flow is in the western and southwestern Gulf, west of 86W with seas of 3 to 5 ft. A recent scatterometer pass notes fresh breezes are within the Florida Straits. Elsewhere E-SE winds are gentle to moderate with 1 to 3 ft seas. A cold front is approaching the NW Gulf stretching along the LA/TX coastline but is not causing any significant weather at this time. For the forecast, the high pressure ridging over the area will gradually slide eastward through Thu as the cold front approaches the NW Gulf. The cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, reach from near Mobile, Alabama to Brownsville, Texas Fri afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near north-central Florida to 27N89W, and stationary to extreme southern Texas late Fri. Low pressure is expected to form offshore extreme southern Texas on Sat along the western part of the front, and shift to the central Gulf pushing a cold front into the western Gulf. Strong north winds will follow in behind the front over the far western Gulf on Sun and Sun night. Strong east winds will develop off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale warning offshore Colombia. The gradient between high pressure ridging in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is producing fresh to strong E winds over the central and south-central Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts strong NE winds also funneling through the Windward Passage, the lee side of Cuba and southern Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the area of strong winds and 8 to 11 ft within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. The rest of the basin is dominated by moderate to fresh easterly trades and moderate seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong northeast winds in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola, and across the Windward Passage through Fri night. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun night followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. Otherwise, moderate trade winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri afternoon and continue through Sun night along with building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 mb high pressure center is west of Bermuda, allowing for moderate return flow over the northern Bahamas, and contained to mostly north of 27N and west of 70W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. A broad surface trough extending from 31N57W to 20N54W tightens the pressure gradient in the south-central Atlantic waters, thus supporting fresh to strong NE winds west of the trough axis between 58W and 70W as well as strong E-SE winds east of the trough axis to 25W. The strongest SE winds and heavy precipitation are noted in the upper right quadrant of the trough, north of 24N. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are over most of the tropical Atlantic, and are 8 to 11 ft north of 25N and east of 72W. For the forecast west of 65W, the tightening gradient between high pressure across the area and the broad trough to the east will support fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly over the offshore waters S of 27N through Fri. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds will dominate the region through Sat night. The next cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Sun evening. $$ Mora