000 AXNT20 KNHC 230406 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Feb 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging near Bermuda and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale-force near the coast of Colombia nightly through Fri night. The sea heights will range from 11-13 ft within the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to the equator at 40W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-04N between 35W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak gradient between high pressure ridging over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico is generating moderate SE winds across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are moderate. For the forecast, these conditions are forecast to continue through early Thu evening with winds pulsing to strong speeds at night off the northern Yucatan peninsula. A cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, bringing strong N winds to portions of the northern and western Gulf for the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. The gradient between high pressure ridging in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is producing strong NE winds over the south-central Caribbean, reaching gale force off the coast of Colombia. A recent altimeter pass confirmed 7-9 ft seas in the south-western Caribbean with up to 11 ft likely closer to Colombia. Strong winds are also funneling through Windward Passage with a container ship reporting 25 kts from the NE. The rest of the basin is dominated by moderate to fresh easterly trades and moderate seas. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters extending a ridge across the northern half of the Caribbean will continue to support gale force NE winds off the coast of Colombia and fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage through late Fri. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun night followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Otherwise, moderate trade winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri afternoon and continue through Sun night along with building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad ridging extends across the northern part of the western Atlantic, leading to mainly moderate easterly trades north of 26N and west of 72W. Fresh trades reach farther south through the Bahamas to the coasts of Cuba and Hispaniola. Recent altimeter passes show that seas of 5-7 ft cover much of the western Atlantic. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N55W to 20N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 420 nm east of the trough axis. West of the trough, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft are confirmed by scatterometer and buoy observations. East of the trough, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas to 10 ft are confirmed by scatterometer and altimeter data. In the eastern Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure near the Canary Islands is generating fresh to strong winds north of the Islands with rough seas to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the basin with rough seas north of 20N and moderate conditions farther south. For the forecast west of 65W, a tightening gradient between high pressure across the area and a broad trough to the east will support fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly over the offshore waters S of 27N through Fri. Afterwards, moderate to fresh NE winds will dominate the region through Sat night. The next cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Sun evening. $$ FLYNN