000 AXNT20 KNHC 212241 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale- force near the coast of Colombia from tonight night through Sat night. The sea heights will range from 9-11 ft with the strongest winds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to the Equator along 50W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 03N-05N between 14W-21W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the equator-08N between 43W-55W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends along the N Gulf of Mexico. Moderate and weaker winds prevail across the basin this afternoon. A surface ridge covers the area, from NE Florida into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate wind speeds or slower span the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet, from the Yucatan Peninsula northwestward for 340 nm. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet from 90W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 90W westward. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop in the NW Gulf starting tonight and continuing into Tue night. A cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, bringing strong N winds to portions of the northern and western Gulf for the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. The surface pressure gradient, that is between high pressure that is to the north of the area and lower surface pressures that are in northern Colombia, is causing enhanced trade wind flow. Fresh NE winds are within 300 nm to the SW of SE Cuba in the Caribbean Sea, in parts of the south central waters from 12N to 17N between 69W and 81W, and within 100 nm off the coast of the Dominican Republic from 70W westward. Moderate NE winds are elsewhere. The sea heights were ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet offshore Colombia between 74W and 76W. The sea heights are ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet from 16.5N northward from 85W westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. The winds will pulse to gale force off the Colombian coast each night through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage, will prevail through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate trade winds will continue in the tropical north Atlantic Ocean to the east of the Lesser Antilles, increasing to fresh speeds on Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N53W to 30N55W. A shear line continues from 30N55W, to 28N60W 26N70W 25N73W. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 30N50W 23N49W 16N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N northward between 44W and 60W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 16N northward between 30W and 70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the north of shear line, and from 27N northward between 50W and 60W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 13 feet from the shear line northward and northwestward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet, from 9N to the shear line from 50W westward. A 1039 mb high pressure is on top of the Azores. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the 30N50W-to-16N48W surface trough eastward. NE near gale-force winds are from 180 nm to 380 nm to the north of the Canary Islands. Strong NE winds are within 200 nm on either side of the line from 19N19W to 22N29W to 26N41W, and from 05N to 11N between 40W and 50W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the remainder of the area. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from 05N northward between 30W and 50W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet elsewhere between 30W and 50W. The sea heights range from 9 feet to 13 feet from 16N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 elsewhere from 30W eastward. A shear line that extends from 30N56W to the Bahamas offshore waters near 26N72W. The shear line is forecast to dissipate today. A tightening gradient between high pressure building over the area, and an approaching broad trough from the east, will lead to northeast to east winds increasing to fresh speeds in most of the southern forecast waters, from late Wed through Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected near and in the Windward Passage. $$ Landsea/ERA