000 AXNT20 KNHC 211052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong high in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through Fri. Seas will range between 8-12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of W Africa near 07N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N18W to the coast of Brazil near the equator. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the length of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Conditions are generally favorable across the basin. Moderate to fresh southeasterly return flow has set up across the western half of the Gulf, causing low stratus and areas of marine fog in the northwestern basin. Seas of 4-5 ft are over this region. Gentle to moderate return flow is elsewhere with seas in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure across the Gulf will move east today, leading to fresh to strong southerly return flow in the NW Gulf starting tonight and continuing into Tue night. A cold front will enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, bringing strong N winds to Tampico and Veracruz offshore waters through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. The gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern Colombia is causing enhanced trade wind flow across the basin. Strong E-NE winds dominate the Colombian Basin and Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh E-NE winds are present elsewhere. Seas are generally moderate with rough conditions in the Colombian Basin and southwest Caribbean. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage will prevail through Sat. Otherwise, moderate trade winds will continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles, increasing to fresh speeds with bulding seas Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N52W to 29N55W where it transitions to a shear line that continues to the Bahamas offshore waters near 25N72W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft are behind the boundary with moderate winds and moderate seas ahead of the front. Farther East, the pattern is dominated by a strong 1037 mb high pressure centered over the Azores creating a gradient with lower pressure near the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas dominate the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds dominate the eastern Atlantic with very rough seas. Recent altimeter data show seas reaching up to 13 ft north of the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 65W, the shear line is forecast to dissipate today. A tightening gradient between high pressure building over the area and an approaching broad trough from the east will lead to northeast to east winds increasing to fresh speeds over the most of the southern forecast waters from late Wed through Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected near and in the Windward Passage. $$ Ramos