000 AXNT20 KNHC 210331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong high in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through Fri. Seas will range between 8-12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Sierra Leone to 04N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N19W to the coast of Brazil near the equator. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the length of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Conditions are generally favorable across the basin. Moderate southeasterly return flow has set up across the western Gulf, causing low stratus and areas of marine fog in the northwestern basin. Moderate easterly winds are present in the Florida Straits with an area of fresh winds near the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle winds prevail across the rest of the basin with no more than moderate seas throughout. For the forecast, high pressure across the Gulf will move east Mon, leading to fresh to strong southerly return flow in the NW Gulf starting Mon night and continuing into Tue night. A cold front will enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, then bring strong N winds to portions of the northern and western Gulf for the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. The gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern Colombia is causing enhanced trade wind flow across the basin. Strong E-NE winds dominate the Colombian Basin and Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh E-NE winds are present elsewhere. Seas are generally moderate with rough conditions in the Colombian Basin and southwest Caribbean. Scattered passing showers are observed from Hispaniola to Nicaragua. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds are forecast in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W to 27N64W where it continues as a stationary boundary toward the central Bahamas. The latest scatterometer and altimeter data found moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft behind the front with gentle winds and moderate seas ahead of the front. Farther East, the pattern is dominated by a strong 1040 mb high pressure centered over the Azores creating a gradient with lower pressure near the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas dominate the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds dominate the eastern Atlantic with rough to very rough seas. A recent altimeter pass found seas reaching up to 15 ft north of the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will dissipate on Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds following the front will diminish to mainly fresh speeds Mon. A tightening gradient between high pressure that will settle in over the area in the wake of the front, and an approaching broad trough from the E will lead northeast to east winds increasing to fresh speeds over the most of the southern forecast waters from late Wed through Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected near and in the Windward Passage. $$ FLYNN