000 AXNT20 KNHC 202312 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure currently located over the Mid-Atlantic states and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through Fri. Seas will range between 8-12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends to 04N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N18W to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N-04N between 24W-30W, and from the equator to 04N between 32W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front enters the Gulf of Mexico through the Florida Straits, becoming a dissipating front near the northern coast of western Cuba. A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf into the central Bay of Campeche while another surface trough lingers in the waters off the Texas coast. Scatterometer data captured the wind shift associated with both troughs. A few showers are likely associated with these features. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a strong 1034 mb high pressure located over the Mid-Atlantic states. Surface observations and latest satellite derived wind data show that moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across most of the eastern half of the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are on the W side of the SW trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate tonight, with fresh winds offshore Veracruz, Mexico, also diminishing as high pressure settles over the region. The high will move east on Mon, leading to fresh to strong southerly return flow in the NW Gulf starting Mon night and continuing into Tue night. A cold front will enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, then bring strong N winds to portions of the northern and western Gulf for the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent across the Caribbean Sea. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is mostly found in the central Caribbean, moving inland over parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Isolated to scattered passing showers could be associated with these patches of moisture. The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of strong to near gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia with fresh to strong winds over the remainder of the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere with mainly fresh NE winds across the Windward passage and S of Hispaniola. Seas of 7-10 ft are noted in the south-central Caribbean and 4-7 ft seas in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage into Fri. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N57W to the central Bahamas, where it transitions into a stationary front that continues into the Florida Straits. A few showers are noted near the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong NE winds follow the front while seas in the region are 7-10 ft. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 29N49W to 16N51W. A few showers and thunderstorms are near the northern end of the trough axis. Abundant multilayer clouds with possible showers dominate most of the Atlantic waters between 20W-50W. A strong 1040 mb high pressure remains over the western Azores with a ridge covering the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the strong high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is resulting in a large area of fresh to strong winds mainly N of 10N and E of 50W to the coast of W Africa. An altimeter pass indicates seas of 10 to 14 ft between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Canary Islands. Seas of 8-10 ft dominate most of the Atlantic E of 55W based on altimeter data. For the forecast west of 65W, the above mentioned front will stall overnight, then dissipate from west to east on Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish to mainly fresh speeds on Mon. A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure that will settle in over the area in the wake of the front, and an approaching broad trough from the E will lead northeast to east winds increasing to fresh speeds over the most of the southern forecast waters from late Wed through Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected near and in the Windward Passage. $$ GR