000 AXNT20 KNHC 201651 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Feb 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1635 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will continue support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia each night through well into the upcoming week. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show strong to near gale-force trades occurring offshore Colombia. These winds will generate wave heights in the range of 9-12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends to 05N20W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N20W to 01N33W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed on satellite imagery from the coast of Brazil to 08N and W of 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front enters the Gulf of Mexico through the Florida Straits, becoming a dissipating stationary front near the northwest coast of Cuba to just north of the Yucatan peninsula. A surface trough extends from near Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico to just offshore Tamaulipas, while another surface trough lingers in the waters off the Texas coast. These features are only producing a few light showers. The rest of the Gulf is dominated by a fairly dry continental airmass. Surface observations and latest satellite-derived wind data show that moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across the basin, except for NW winds in the W Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5-8 ft are found in the SW Gulf and 2-5 ft elsewhere. An altimeter satellite pass from earlier this morning captured sea heights up to 9 ft in the W Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will gradually dissipate into Mon. Strong winds offshore Veracruz will diminish this afternoon as high pressure settles over the region. The high will move east Mon, leading to fresh to strong southerly return flow in the NW Gulf starting Mon night. A cold front is likely to enter the far NW Gulf Thu, then stall, before being overtaken by a stronger cold front Thu night. This second cold front will bring strong N winds to portions of the northern and western Gulf for the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent across the Caribbean Sea. A few patches of low-level moisture ride the trades, mostly found in the central Caribbean, and support only shallow isolated showers. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that strong to near gale-force winds are occurring in the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest trades affecting the offshore waters of NW Colombia. Fresh to locally strong trades are present in the north-central and western Caribbean Sea. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere. Seas of 7-10 ft are noted in the south-central Caribbean and 4-7 ft seas in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night into Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage into Fri. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the period. Seas over these waters will slowly subside through early week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N62W to the central Bahamas, where it transitions into a stationary front that continues into the Florida Straits. A few showers are noted near the frontal boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to strong NE winds behind the frontal boundary, while seas in the region are 7-10 ft. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 29N49W to 14N51W. Divergence aloft is enhancing scattered convection to the east of the trough. Meanwhile, a strong high pressure system of 1042 mb persists near the Azores. The tight pressure gradient created by the subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and surface trough result in a large region of fresh to near gale-force winds covering most of the central and eastern Atlantic, especially E of 50W. The strongest winds are found N of 23N and between 22W and 45W, and N of 17N and E of 22W. The prominent area of winds allows for a large swell region covering the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. Seas greater than 8 ft are occurring E of 55W and greater than 12 ft occurring N of 21N and E of 40W. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions, with moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned front will fully stall by tonight when it reaches 31N54W to the SE Bahamas. Then, it will gradually dissipate through Mon night. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish to mainly fresh speeds Mon night. A tightening gradient between high pressure that will settle in over the area in the wake of the front, and an approaching broad trough from the E will lead northeast to east winds increasing to fresh speeds over the most of the southern forecast waters from late Wed through Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected near and in the Windward Passage. $$ DELGADO