000 AXNT20 KNHC 200920 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Feb 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will continue support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia each night through well into the upcoming week. These winds will generate wave heights in the range of 9-12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W and extends to 05N17W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to the equator at 40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 21W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 24N88W, where it becomes stationary to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale-force winds, with wave heights of 8-10 ft are in far southwestern Gulf offshore Veracruz as noted in an overnight ASCAT data pass. Buoys throughout the remainder of the Gulf are reporting moderate to fresh northeast winds along with wave heights of 4-7 ft, except for higher wave heights of 6-8 ft elsewhere in the SW Gulf. Isolated showers and patches of light rain are in the NW Gulf due increasing moisture in that part of the Gulf. As for the forecast, the weakening cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 24N88W, where it becomes stationary to the central Bay of Campeche. The front will slowly move southward today and become stationary over the Straits of Florida and far southeastern Gulf by early this afternoon. The strong to near gale-force northwest to north winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will diminish in the morning. The front will dissipate across the eastern Gulf region on Sun as high pressure over the region shifts eastward through Mon. Fresh to strong return flow will develop over the Gulf Mon into early Tue. A cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf Wed night and stall. Another cold front is then expected to enter the NW Gulf Thu night followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow continues to move across the basin producing mainly isolated brief passing showers. Strong northeast winds persist in the southern Colombian Basin with rough seas affecting unprotected waters north of the Panama Canal. Moderate to fresh E-NE winds are observed through the remainder of the basin with strong NE winds impacting the Windward Passage. Seas are generally moderate. As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Thu night. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the period. Seas over these waters will slowly subside through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening cold front extends from 31N67W southwestward to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the frontal boundary. Overnight ASCAT data passes show fresh to strong north winds behind the front and west to 74W, and mainly fresh north to northeast winds west of 74W. Wave heights behind the front are 6-9 ft. The ASCAT data passes also reveal moderate to fresh southwest winds ahead of the front north of about 29N, where wave heights are in the range of 6-8 ft. Wave heights elsewhere south of the front are in the 5-6 ft range, except for lower wave heights of 2-3 ft southwest of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the front N of 29N. As for the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from near 31N59W to 27N68W and to near the coast of Cuba by early this afternoon, then become stationary and gradually dissipate through Mon night. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish to mainly fresh speeds Mon. A tightening gradient between high pressure that will settle in over the area in the wake of the front, and an approaching broad trough from the east will lead northeast to east winds increasing to fresh speeds over the most of the southern forecast waters from late Wed through Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected near and in the Windward Passage. Over the central part of the Atlantic, a large surface trough is analyzed from near 30N44W to 24N48W and to 16N50W. This feature is supported by a broad upper-level trough that stretches from an upper-level low that is near 32N12W west-southwestward to 28N26W, and to a base near 19N50W. Satellite imagery shows an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms that extends from 16N to 30N between 40W-49W. The surface trough will gradually shift westward through Mon. The gradient west of this trough is allowing for generally moderate to fresh east winds over the central Atlantic, with noted wave heights of 7-9 ft due to a northeast swell. To the northeast of the aforementioned surface trough, a strong 1040 mb high center is near the Azores. This feature dominates the wind regime over the eastern Atlantic area. An overnight altimeter data pass indicates wave heights up to 15 ft between the Azores and the Canary Islands in an area of strong NE winds. The 1040 mb high dominates the wind regime over the eastern part of the area. A very tight gradient there between the high and lower pressure in the tropics is allowing for fresh to strong northeast to east winds to exist across just about the entire eastern Atlantic north of 13N and east of about 40W. A lighter gradient over the central Atlantic is keeping generally moderate to fresh east winds there, with wave heights of 7-9 ft due to a northeast swell. $$ Aguirre