000 AXNT20 KNHC 200400 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Feb 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will continue support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through mid-week. Seas will range between 8 and 12 ft in the southern Caribbean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone, near 07N13W and extends to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to the equator at 40W. Convection is limited. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from southern Florida to the central Gulf where it becomes stationary to the Bay of Campeche. Strong northerly winds and rough seas are gradually abating in the western Bay of Campeche. Buoys throughout the remainder of the Gulf are reporting moderate to fresh NE winds with moderate seas. For the forecast, the front will slowly drift southward while weakening tonight. Strong to near gale-force northwest to north winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will diminish by early Sun afternoon. The front will dissipate across the eastern Gulf region on Sun as high pressure over the region shifts eastward through Mon. Fresh to strong return flow will develop over the Gulf Mon into early Tue. A cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf Wed night and reach from Louisiana to S Texas late Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow continues to move across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Strong NE winds persist in the southern Colombian Basin with rough seas affecting unprotected waters north of the Panama Canal. Moderate to fresh E-NE winds are observed through the remainder of the basin with strong NE winds impacting the Windward Passage. Seas are generally moderate. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Thu night. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the period. Seas over these waters will slowly subside through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N70W to south Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the frontal boundary. The latest scatterometer satellite pass revealed moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front with gentle westerly winds ahead. Seas are moderate throughout the western portion of the subtropical north Atlantic. For the forecast west of 65W, the front will reach from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front tonight into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will control the weather pattern in the region for the remainder of the forecast period. Farther east, a strong 1042 mb high pressure near the Azores dominates the pattern. A recent altimeter pass found very rough seas to 15 ft just north of the Canary Islands in an area of strong NE winds. North of 25N, strong NE-E winds and very rough seas extend from the coast of Africa to 40W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a very large area of fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas. $$ FLYNN