000 AXNT20 KNHC 191711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Feb 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between ridging associated with a robust high pressure system over the Azores and lower pressures in NW South America will continue to induce pulsing minimal gale-force winds offshore NW Colombia each night through at least the middle of next week. Seas will range between 8 and 12 ft. An altimeter satellite pass from earlier this morning confirmed seas up to 12 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the Sierra Leone border to 05N17W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N17W to 00N35W. A surface trough is analyzed along 50W from 01N to 08N. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the surface trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Bradenton Beach, Florida to 25N88W, where it becomes a stationary front that bends southward toward the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. A weak surface trough is located in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A few weak showers are noted near the frontal boundary and surface trough. There is considerable cloudiness behind the frontal boundary, covering most of the Gulf waters, while the SE Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Strong to near gale-force NW winds are found in the offshore waters of Veracruz. Seas in the area are 6-10 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong N-NE winds are present in the rest of the Gulf waters behind the frontal boundary. Seas in the region are 4-8 ft. Gentle moderate NE-N winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail ahead of the frontal boundary. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will shift eastward and weaken as it reaches from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche this morning. Strong to near gale- force northwest to north winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will linger into tonight, then diminish early on Sun. The front will dissipate across the eastern Gulf region on Sun as high pressure builds across the southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over the Gulf early next week, except for fresh to strong winds over the north-central Gulf. A cold front is expected to move into the far NW Gulf Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. The strong present gradient as the result of the robust 1042 mb high pressure near the Azores and lower pressures over NW South America continue to support strong to near gale-force trades in the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia. Fresh to locally strong trades are noted in the north-central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds affecting the waters offshore southern Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh trades are prevalent in the rest of the basin. Seas are 6-10 ft in the south-central Caribbean and 3-7 ft elsewhere. The weather conditions remain fairly tranquil with only a few patches of shallow moisture moving across the enclosed body of water. As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Wed night. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the period. Seas over these waters will slowly subside through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N74W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. A surface trough is found ahead of the frontal boundary over the NW Bahamas. Satellite imagery show isolated showers near these boundaries. Moderate to occasionally fresh anticyclonic winds prevail W of 60W, along with seas of 4-8 ft. Meanwhile, a surface trough along 51W extends from 17N to 23W. A combination of these system and divergence aloft is causing scattered showers from 19N to 23N and between 45W and 53W. Farther east, a strong 1042 mb subtropical high centered over the Azorean archipelago dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient as the result of the strong ridge and lower pressures over the deep tropics allow for a large region of fresh to strong N-E winds across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. A shear line is analyzed from 31N16W to 27N30W to 29N41W. Strong to near gale-force winds are found north of the shear line. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are present N of 26N and E of 41W, while seas greater than 8 ft cover most of the tropical Atlantic E of 60W. As for the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned front will reach from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front tonight into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will control the weather pattern in the region for the remainder of the forecast period. $$ DELGADO