000 AXNT20 KNHC 191004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Feb 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between ridging associated to strong Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in northern Colombia will continue to induce pulsing gale-force winds offshore northern Colombia each night through the middle of next week. The gale-force forecast winds are of 35 kt. An ASCAT data pass from 02Z last night confirmed the presence of these winds. Maximum wave heights generated by these winds will reach near 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Sierra Leone/Guinea border, then continues southwestward to near 05N17W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to the equator at 39W. Weakening scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm northwest of the ITCZ between 17W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Crystal River, Florida southwestward to 25N90W, where it becomes stationary to 22N94W, to the Bay of Campeche and to inland Mexico at 18N93W. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast low clouds along and within 120 nm northwest of the cold front, and also to the west and northwest of the stationary front to near 97W. Isolated showers are along and within 30 nm of the cold front between 85W-89W. Patches of light drizzle and rain are possible elsewhere within the aforementioned low clouds. Areas of dense sea fog that are sharply reducing visibility are observed on satellite imagery over the eastern Gulf waters south of the cold front to near 24N and east of about 86W reaching to the interior sections of central and South Florida. A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure that is ridging southward along the coast of Mexico and and the stationary front continues to sustain strong to near gale-force northwest to north winds in SW Gulf, with wave heights in the range of 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the northern Gulf with moderate seas to 8 ft. Lighter marine conditions are to the southeast of the frontal boundary, where gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are present. Wave heights with these winds are in the 2-3 ft range in the far southeastern Gulf, Straits of Florida and in the Yucatan Channel. Wave heights of 6-8 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche are due to a north swell. As for the forecast, the cold front will shift eastward, then weaken as it reaches from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche this morning. Strong to near gale-force northwest to north winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will linger into tonight, then diminish early on Sun. The front will dissipate across the eastern Gulf region on Sun as high pressure builds across the southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over the Gulf early next week, with fresh to strong winds over the north-central Gulf. A cold front is expected to move into the far NW Gulf Wed night followed by fresh to strong northeast winds. The areas of fog over the eastern Gulf are forecast to erode during the morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. The gradient between ridging from the Azores high and and a 1008 mb low over Colombia is continuing to generate enhanced easterly trade wind flow across the basin. Shallow moisture embedded in this flow is producing scattered showers throughout the basin. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas to 9 ft dominate the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh east winds are over the eastern part of the sea along with wave heights of 5-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are over the northwestern Caribbean with wave heights in the range of 3-5 ft. Strong northeast winds are in the Windward Passage and just to the south of the Dominican Republic. As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Wed night. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the period. Wave heights over these waters will subside a little through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has entered the western Atlantic waters and extends from 31N78W southwestward to inland north-central Florida just north of Ormond Beach. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the front north of 29N. Latest buoy observations are reporting moderate northwest winds behind the front, and moderate to fresh southwest winds ahead of it. Per latest altimeter data passes, wave heights are in the 6-9 ft range east of the Bahamas to 65W due to northeast long-period swell. East of 65W, the weather pattern is dominated by a very strong "Spring" like 1041 mb high pressure center near the Azores. The associated ridging interacting with lower pressure in the tropics is producing a tight pressure gradient. As a result, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas dominate the majority of the basin, north of the ITCZ and east of 65W. A shear line is analyzed from near 31N20W to 29N31W and to 28N45W. Latest scatterometer and altimeter satellite data passes indicate an extensive swath of strong winds north of the shear line with very rough wave heights in the range of 11-14 ft. A surface trough extends from 26N52W to 18N50W. This feature is supported by a highly amplified upper-level trough that stretches from near from well northeast of the area, southwestward to 31N40W and to a base near 18N59W. Upper dynamics with this trough in in combination with the surface trough is helping to sustain an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters from 19N to 25N between 47W-56W. The surface trough is forecast to track westward and amplify during the weekend. Expect for the area of scattered showers and thunderstorms to shift westward with this feature. As for the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee by Sat morning, and from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front tonight into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will control the weather pattern in the region for the remainder of the forecast period. $$ Aguirre