382 AXNT20 KNHC 190409 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Feb 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight gradient between ridging from strong Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in northern Colombia will continue to induce pulsing gale-force winds offshore northern Colombia each night through the middle of next week, with winds possibly reaching 40 kt at times. The wave heights will range from 11-14 ft, with the highest seas occurring during the early morning hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra Leone/Guinea border, then continues SW to near 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to the equator at 39W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is noted on satellite from 02N to 07N between 16W and 20W. Scattered weak convection is also noted from 02S to 05N between 25W and 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered weak convection is observed along the frontal boundary. While the gale warning has expired tonight, winds remain strong to near gale force the SW Gulf with rough seas to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the northern Gulf with moderate seas to 8 ft. Conditions are more favorable ahead of the front with a gentle breeze and slight seas in the SE Gulf, Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the cold front will shift eastward, then weaken as it reaches from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. Strong to near gale-force northwest to north winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will linger into Sat night, then diminish early on Sun. The front will dissipate across the eastern Gulf region on Sun as high pressure builds across the southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over the Gulf early next week, with fresh to strong winds over the north-central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. The gradient between ridging from the Azores high and and a 1008 mb low over Colombia is continuing to generate enhanced easterly trade wind flow across the basin. Shallow moisture embedded in this flow is producing scattered showers throughout the basin. Fresh to strong E-NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft dominate the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E winds are observed in the eastern basin with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the NW Caribbean with slight to moderate seas. Strong winds are noted in the Windward Passage and south of the DR. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Wed night. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the period. Seas over these waters will subside a little through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has entered the western Atlantic waters extending from 31N79W to St. Augustine, FL. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the frontal boundary. Buoys are reporting moderate NW winds behind the front with moderate SW winds ahead. Moderate seas in the area range from 6 to 8 ft. East of 65W, the weather pattern is dominated by a very strong 1043 mb high pressure near the Azores. This is creating an enhanced pressure gradient with lower pressure in the deep tropics. As a result, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas dominate the majority of the basin, north of the ITCZ and east of 65W. A shear line extends from 31N20W to 28N44W. Scatterometer and altimeter satellite data indicate an extensive swath of strong winds north of the shear line with very rough seas of 13-15 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, The cold front will reach from near 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee by Sat morning, and from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front Sat night into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will control the weather pattern in the region for the remainder of the forecast period. $$ FLYNN