517 AXNT20 KNHC 182315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient due to strong Atlantic high pressure interacting with low pressure in northern Colombia will continue to induce pulsing gale-force winds offshore northern Colombia at night, each night through the middle of next week, with winds possibly reaching 40 kt at times. The wave heights will range from 11-14 ft, with the highest seas occurring during the early morning hours. Latest scatterometer data confirmed the presence of minimal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia while an altimeter pass indicated seas of 12-14 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 18/1800 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the central Gulf near 25N90W to the central Bay of Campeche. The most recent satellite derived wind data provided observations of gale force NW-N winds extending from offshore of Tampico, Mexico to offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. Seas of 8-10 ft were observed within these winds. The front will shift eastward, then weaken as it reaches from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. Gale-force northwest to north winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz will decrease this evening. The front will dissipate across the eastern Gulf region on Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra Leone/Guinea border, then continues SW to near 03N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted on satellite from 03N to 08N between 10W and 18W. Similar convective activity is evident from 03N to 05N between 45W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf near the Veracruz area. A cold front is analyzed from from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. Conditions presently west of the front are described above under Special Features. A surface trough is ahead of the front and runs from 24N91W to 19N94W. Gentle SE to S winds are east of the front, over the eastern Gulf, where the latest buoy and altimeter data indicates seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Visible satellite imagery indicates a rope cloud that delineate the leading edge of the front. As for the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will dissipate across the eastern Gulf region on Sun as high pressure builds across the southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over the Gulf early next week, except for fresh to strong winds over the north-central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic, producing isolated to scattered passing showers. The San Juan Doppler radar indicated locally heavy rain with these patches of moisture. Latest scatterometer data indicate strong to near gale force winds in the south-central, fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of Venezuela, and mainly moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the basin, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean and 7-9 ft in the central Caribbean, except 9-14 ft in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NW part of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail E of the Lesser Antilles As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas in the 6-8 ft in NE to E swell will prevail E of the Lesser Antilles during the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The weather pattern is dominated by a very strong 1041 mb high pressure located W of the Azores near 39N36W. This is creating an enhanced pressure gradient with lower pressure near the ITCZ and South America. As a result, fresh or stronger easterly winds dominate the majority of the basin, north of the ITCZ and east of 65W. West of 65W, mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail. Fresh to strong winds are noted per scatterometer data off NE Florida ahead of the cold front currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico. An area of multilayer clouds with embedded showersand thunderstorms is noted over the central Atlantic, particularly N of 20N between 40W and 60W. This convective activity is associated with an upper level trough, and is more concentrated from 19N to 22n between 55W and 60W. A shear line extends from 31N25W to 28N50W. The latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate an extensive swath of strong to near gale- force northeast winds north of the shear line with fresh to strong winds to the south. Sea heights of 12-15 ft are in the wake of the shear line. For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move off northern Florida this evening. The front will reach from near 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee by Sat morning, and from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front Sat night into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will control the weather pattern in the region for the remainder of the forecast period. Strong high pressure centered west of the Azores combined with a surface trough approaching the Morocco offshore waters will induce strong N to NE winds and rough seas in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya on Sat, according to the latest forecast from Meteo France. $$ GR