000 AXNT20 KNHC 151756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Feb 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support strong to minimal gale- force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through Thu night. Peak wave heights with these winds are forecast to reach near 12 ft during the overnight and early morning hours near 11.5N75.5W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues to 05N19W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N19W to 02N32W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Isolated showers are noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging prevails. The latest observations and scatterometer data indicate mainly moderate E to SE flow across the western and central Gulf, increasing to fresh in the eastern Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft in the northern and western Gulf, 4-6 ft in the central and eastern Gulf, and 6-8 ft in the SE Gulf, including through the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will continue into Wed night over the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf tonight through Wed night. These strong winds will move east across the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu. The next cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf on Thu, and extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico, early Fri. The front will move very slowly southeast during the start of the weekend, possibly stalling out and dissipating by the end of the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning for offshore waters near the coast of Colombia. A stationary front extends from Cabo Cruz, Cuba to La Ceiba, Honduras near 16N86W. Heavy rainfall amounts are possible in NW Honduras to central Guatemala today. Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers are possible over the northwestern Caribbean along and west of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are blowing west of the front, with 6-8 ft seas. In the south-central Caribbean, strong to near gale force winds were detected by the latest scatterometer pass, within an area from 10N to 13N between 74W and 78W. Seas in this area are 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are noted, with 6-8 ft seas in the central Caribbean and 4-6 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, winds are expected to pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Thu night while strong winds will expand in areal coverage across the central Caribbean Sea tonight through Thu night. Also, fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage during this time period. A stationary front from far eastern Cuba to north-central Honduras will dissipate later today. Fresh to strong NE winds to the west of the front, including in the lee of Cuba, will continue through Wed with building seas. Otherwise, trade winds will strengthen and seas will build over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles tonight through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N58W to 24N70W, where it becomes stationary and continues to the coast of Cuba near 21N75W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6-10 ft seas are noted west of the front to 77W. West of 77W to the US Coast, NE winds are moderate and seas are 3-6 ft. North of 20N and east of the front, moderate E to SE winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail. Fresh to locally strong trades and 6-10 ft seas in NE swell are analyzed south of 20N from 35W to the Lesser Antilles. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which supports fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will gradually stall and weaken through Wed, and then become a shearline through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds to the west of the boundary will expand across the region as high pressure strengthens through Thu. High pressure will settle into the region at the end of the week leading to improved conditions. A weaker cold front is fore cast to move off northern Florida Fri night through Sat night. $$ Mahoney