000 AXNT20 KNHC 150534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Feb 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support strong to minimal gale- force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through Fri. Peak wave heights with these winds are forecast to reach near 12 ft during the overnight and early morning hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 03N30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 19W to 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 mb high pressure center is anchored off the SE coast of Louisiana allowing for anticyclonic flow over the Gulf of Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass noted moderate to fresh NE winds south of 25N and east of 93W, where seas are most likely 6 to 9 ft. The strongest winds are in the far southeast region of the basin, including within the Yucatan Channel where sea heights are up to 9 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate flow is noted with slight seas in the northern Gulf and moderate seas in the central and southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will continue into Wed night over the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf Tue night through Wed night. These strong winds will move E across the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu. The next cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf on Thu and extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico, early Fri. The front will move very slowly southeast during the start of the weekend, possibly stalling out and dissipating by the end of the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about an ongoing Gale Warning for offshore waters of the northern coast of Colombia. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to 16N86W offshore Honduras. Isolated showers are possible over the northwestern Caribbean along and west of the front. A scatterometer satellite pass found strong N-NE winds west of the front where seas are likely 6 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the SW basin, where seas are also 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, fresh winds prevail, with 4 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, winds are expected to pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Thu night. The stationary front from far eastern Cuba to northern Honduras will dissipate by Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected northwest of the front, including in the lee of Cuba, through early Wed with building seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to funnel through the Windward Passage Tue night through Thu night. Strong winds are forecast to expand in areal coverage over the central Caribbean Sea Tue night through Thu night. Trade winds with strengthen and seas will build over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles Tue night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N62W to the southeastern Bahamas where the boundary becomes stationary to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are front N of 28N and fresh to strong N-NE winds are W of the front, where wave heights are in the range of 8-10 ft. Isolated showers are likely within 120 nm of the front. A satellite scatterometer pass noted moderate easterly flow south of 28N to 55W, along with waves heights of 5 to 7 ft. High pressure anchored by a 1032 mb high center that is N of the area near 34N36W covers the remainder of the area. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is supporting strong NE to E trades and wave heights in the range of 8 to 10 ft from 06N to 19N between 35W to 50W. Fresh trades and wave heights of 7 to 9 ft are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 27N between 16W to 55W. Lighter winds and lower wave heights are present elsewhere. As for the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will gradually stall through Wed, becoming a shearline through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds north and west of the boundary will expand in coverage as high pressure strengthens, encompassing much of the waters through Thu. High pressure will settle into the region at the end of the week leading to improving conditions. A weaker cold front may move off northern Florida Fri night through Sat night. $$ Mora