000 AXNT20 KNHC 142353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Feb 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support strong to minimal gale- force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through Fri. Peak wave heights with these winds are forecast to reach near 12 ft during the overnight and early morning hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the border of Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 05N08W and extends to 04N22W, where latest scatterometer data indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N30W and to 01N48W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted between 14W and the African coast from 01N to 08N. Scattered moderate convection is also observed from 02N to 06N between 23W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered over southern Texas, with a ridge extending southward across eastern Mexico and to southeastern Mexico. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds cover the NW and west-central Gulf. Fresh N to NE winds are farther east and south, with fresh to strong N winds in the Straits of Florida, Yucatan Channel and in the southeastern Gulf. Wave heights range from 6-9 ft in the eastern Gulf, to 5-7 ft in the NE and eastern Bay of Campeche, 4-6 ft in the SW Gulf, 3-5 ft in west- central and north-central Gulf and lower wave heights of 2-4 ft in the NW Gulf. Small patches of light rain are in the west-central Gulf. As for the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will continue into Wed night over the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf Tue night through Wed night. These strong winds will move E across the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu. The next cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf on Thu, and extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico, early Fri CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about an ongoing Gale Warning offshore of the northern coast of Colombia. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to 20N83W and southwest to inland northeastern Honduras near 15N86W. Isolated showers are possible over the northwestern Caribbean along and west of the front. Strong N-NE winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are west of the front with fresh NE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean ahead of the front. Across the remainder of the basin, fairly tranquil weather conditions continue. Moderate to fresh trades are over the waters south of 19N and west of 72W, with gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range in the eastern Caribbean and 7-10 ft south of 15N in the central Caribbean, with seas up to 11 ft offshore Colombia. As for the forecast, winds are expected to pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Fri. A stationary front that stretches from eastern Cuba to northern Nicaragua will dissipate by Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected northwest of the front, including in the lee of Cuba into Tue night with building seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to funnel through the Windward Passage Tue through Thu night. Strong winds are forecast to expand in areal coverage over the central Caribbean Sea Tue night into Thu. Trade winds with strengthen and seas will build over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles Tue night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Fresh to strong SW winds are E of the front N of 28N and fresh to strong northerly winds are W of the front. Broken to overcast mainly low clouds, with isolated showers are within 100 nm ahead of the front, mainly north of 27N and within 60 nm ESE of the front S of 27N. Wave heights are 8-9 ft on both sides of the front, mainly north of 28N. Generally moderate winds are present south of 27N between 60W-78W along with wave heights of 5-7 ft. High pressure, anchored by a 1032 mb high center that is N of the area near 34N38W covers the remainder of the area. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure associate to the ITCZ, strong NE to E trades, with 9-12 ft seas are present from 12N-21N between 35W- 50W. Fresh trades and 7-9 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 27N between 16W- 55W. Weaker winds and lower wave heights are present elsewhere. As for the forecast W of 65W, fresh to strong winds occurring on both sides of the cold front that extends from just E of Bermuda south-southwestward to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba will diminish by tonight. The northern part of the front will continue moving E while the southern portions will stall from the Turks and Caicos Islands to the Windward Passage. High pressure will strengthen north of the area in the wake of the front, causing strong NE to E winds to develop over the entire area Tue and persist into Thu. High pressure will settle into the region at the end of the week leading to improving conditions. $$ Aguirre