000 AXNT20 KNHC 131108 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Feb 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Atlantic Ocean and lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama will continue to support strong to minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the middle of the week. The wave heights are forecast to reach 11-13 ft during the overnight and early morning hours. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 09Z, a cold front extends from Apalachicola Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. A scatterometer from 04Z provides observations of gale force winds behind the cold front offshore of NE Mexico to Tampico. By 12Z this morning, sustained gale force winds will be confined to the offshore Veracruz waters, where winds could reach 45 kt this morning. Strong N winds are forecast for most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front. The gale force winds will end late this evening after the cold front exits the Gulf basin. Seas are forecast to peak near 19 ft off Veracruz later today. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border and continues westward to near 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 02N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ between 23W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf waters followed by gale force winds and rough seas. Please read the Special Features section for details. A surface trough extends from Key West, Florida to Cancun, Mexico. A line of thunderstorms is present within 60 nm of the trough axis. Moderate convection is occurring east of a line extending from 28N83W to 21N87W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are occurring just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere east of the front over the SE Gulf. As for the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will exit the basin this evening. Marine conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf by late Mon as high pressure builds across the basin, however fresh northeast winds will continue through Tue over the southeastern Gulf and the Florida Straits, increasing to strong Tue night and Wed as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf by the middle of week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. A surface trough extends from Key West, Florida to Cancun, Mexico. A line of thunderstorms is present within 60 nm of the trough axis, including over the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, patches of low cumulus clouds over the east-central Caribbean may contain isolated passing showers. Fresh trades cover the E Caribbean and strong trades are over the central Caribbean, except for near-gale to gale near the coast of Colombia. Gentle winds are over the NW Caribbean to the southeast of the aforementioned surface trough. However, fresh N winds are about to come through the Yucatan Channel north of the line of thunderstorms. Seas are 10-14 ft near the coast of Colombia, and 7-10 ft elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft in the eastern basin and 2-5 ft over the NW Caribbean. As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia every night through Thu night. The areal extent of fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean will shrink slightly today, and mainly be confined to the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean this evening, generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it through Tue with building seas. Expect conditions to deteriorate over the Yucatan Channel this morning with thunderstorms and gusty winds. The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle of next week. Looking ahead, strong winds will expand in areal coverage again over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough east of Florida is spreading scattered showers and isolated tstorms over Florida and extending northeastward over the waters north of the northwest Bahamas. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are observed on either side of the trough N of 26N. Fresh NE-E winds are just N of Hispaniola. The wave heights are in the range of 3-5 ft to the west of 75W, and 5-7 ft between 65W-75W, except for higher heights of 6-8 ft S of 23N and E of 74W. A westward-moving surface trough persists over the Atlantic and now extends from 25N47W to 15N48W. Plenty of deep atmospheric moisture is present to the east of this trough to about 20W. Within this area of moisture, patches of moderate rain, with embedded showers are possible. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are noted per earlier scatterometer data near the northern end of the trough axis due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure of 1031 mb located to the N near 34N39W. Similar wind speeds are also noted E of the trough axis, and mainly from 12N-23N between 28W-45W. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range within these winds. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic waters. As for the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong trades will pulse N of Hispaniola through tonight. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore Florida late this morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front, this afternoon through Mon morning to the north and northeast of the Bahamas. The front will extend from 27N65W to eastern Cuba late Mon night. High pressure will strengthen north of the area in the wake of the front, causing strong NE to E winds to expand over the entire area Tue through Wed night, along with building seas. $$ Hagen