000 AXNT20 KNHC 130005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building central Atlantic Ocean ridge and lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama will support strong to minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the middle of next week. The wave heights are forecast to reach a range of 12-14 ft tonight, then subside on Sun. The wave heights may possibly reach to around 11 ft with subsequent pulses of the winds to gale-force from Sun night and into the middle of next week. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has recently moved off the coast of Texas, and as of 21Z extends from near Panama City southwestward to 28N90W and continues to 26N94W to 26N95W and to inland Mexico just north of Tampico. Gale- force northerly winds are expected behind the front offshore Texas and Tampico, Mexico tonight. These conditions will move south to offshore offshore Veracruz on Sun. Strong north winds are forecast in most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front. Expect the front to exit the basin by Sun evening. The wave heights are forecast to build to 12 feet tonight, and then reach 18 ft on Sun off Veracruz. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W to 05N16W and to 03N24W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the trough between 14W-19W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning. A cold front extends from near Panama City southwestward to 28N90W and continues to 26N94W to 26N95W and to inland Mexico just north of Tampico. A surface trough extends from near 25N90W to inland the coast of 18N94W. The combination of abundant deep layer atmospheric moisture and these features has resulted in widespread areas of moderate to heavy along with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms to materialize over the basin to the southeast of the cold front. The wave heights are in the range of 1 to 3 ft in the eastern Gulf and slightly higher heights of 2-4 ft elsewhere. Mainly gentle winds are in the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are in the southern Gulf. As for the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will bring gale-force northerly winds offshore of Texas and Tampico tonight, then move south to offshore Veracruz Sun. Strong north winds are forecast over most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the frontal boundary. The front should exit the basin Sun evening. Conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf by late Mon as high pressure builds across the basin, however fresh NE winds will continue through Tue over the SE Gulf and the Florida Straits, increasing to strong Tue night and Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf by the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Strong to gale-force northeast to east winds are near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate tradewinds are in the NW corner. The wave heights range from 6-9 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with the exception of higher heights of 9-12 ft offshore Colombia. Lower wave heights, in the range of 2-4 ft, are in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Satellite imagery shows patches of low-level moisture moving quickly westward with the trade wind flow over some sections of the eastern and central Caribbean. Isolated showers are possible with these patches of moisture. As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia every night through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds over the eastern and central Caribbean will continue through early Sun. The area of strong winds over the central Caribbean is expected to expand again by the middle of next week. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun evening, generating fresh to strong northeast winds behind it through Tue with building seas. Expect conditions to deteriorate over the Yucatan Channel by Sun afternoon with the approaching front. The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to northeastern Honduras by Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 31N69W to 27N74W to the central Bahamas and to inland central Cuba. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 30N within 180 nm east of the trough. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are in the western Atlantic, except for fresh winds to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The wave heights are in the range of 3-5 ft to the west of 60W, except for higher heights of 5-7 ft from 19N to 22N between 63W-70W. In the eastern Atlantic, an extensive surface trough is analyzed from near 30N41W to 20N45W and to 07N46W. Plenty of deep atmospheric moisture is present to the east of this trough to near 19W. Within this moisture area, scattered patches of moderate rain with embedded scattered to numerous showers are noted, mainly to the north of 14N. Per latest and current altimeter data passes, wave heights range from 7-10 ft from the coasts of French Guiana and Suriname northward to between the surface trough and 60W. The wave heights range mostly from 7-9 ft north of 10N and east of the trough. Some wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere in those areas. Wave heights of 4-6 ft elsewhere east of 60W. High pressure is present elsewhere over the Atlantic basin. As for the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong trades will pulse N of Hispaniola through Sun night. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun bringing fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will strengthen north of the area, causing strong NE to E winds to expand over the entire area Tue through Thu night. $$ Aguirre