000 AXNT20 KNHC 120019 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 12 2022 Corrected Atlantic Ocean section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building central Atlantic Ocean ridge, and lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama, will support strong to minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night through the middle of next week. The wave heights are forecast to peak to around 12 ft Sat night. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico by early Saturday afternoon. The cold front will exit the southeastern Gulf late Sun afternoon. Gale force north winds are expected behind the front, offshore of Texas and Tampico in Mexico on Sat night, then offshore Veracruz, Mexico on Sun. The wave heights are forecast to build to 12 ft on Sat night, possibly reaching 16 ft on Sun off Veracruz. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N/06N along 10W to 06N15W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N25W and to 03N36W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm, south of the trough between 07N-12W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about the ongoing gale warning. A high pressure ridge associated to high pressure of 1021 mb offshore the South Carolina coast extends southwestward to the NE Gulf. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds cover the Gulf from 23N to 29N between 89W-97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seem within these clouds from 23N to 28N between 89W-95W. The latest ASCAT data passes show gentle to moderate winds in the SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Wave heights are in the 1-3 ft range, except for slightly higher heights of 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche and in the west-central Gulf area. As for the forecast, benign marine conditions will prevail across the basin through Sat as high pressure remains over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat afternoon bringing gale force northerly winds behind the front offshore the Texas coast to Tampico, Mexico by Sat night, then gale force winds will funnel south to offshore Veracruz Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the frontal boundary, and the front should exit the basin late Sun afternoon. Strong north winds are forecast over most of the remainder of the Gulf, behind the front. Conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf by Mon night as high pressure builds across the basin, however moderate to fresh NE winds will continue through Tue nigh over the southeastern Gulf and the Straits of Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA...Corrected Please read the Special Features section for details about the a gale warning for offshore NW Colombia. A stationary front extends from the western Atlantic southwestward to 27N74W, to central Bahamas and to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W, where it weakens to a trough to the southern coast of Cuba near 21N78W and continues to northern Belize. Isolated showers are along and near the trough. Afternoon ASCAT data passes reveal that fresh to strong trades are over the central part of the Caribbean and strong northeast to east winds are over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The data shows that strong east winds are north of 15N between 64W and 72W, and northeast to east moderate winds are over the northwestern Caribbean. Wave heights are in the range of 6-8 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Higher wave heights of 7-10 ft are offshore Colombia, while lower wave heights of 2-4 ft are over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Patches of low-level moisture within the trade wind flow are seen over the eastern Caribbean Sea on latest satellite imagery. Isolated showers are possible with these patches of moisture. As for the forecast, fresh to strong winds continue to propagate westward into the eastern Caribbean tonight. These conditions will reach the central Caribbean tonight with building seas across the area. Nightly winds will pulse to minimal gale force off Colombia every night through the middle of next week. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun afternoon, generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it through Tue, with building seas. The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to the northeast section of Honduras by Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected A stationary front is analyzed from 31N69W southwestward to 27N74W, to central Bahamas and to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front within 30 nm of a line from 27N72W to 29N69W, and also over the waters between the central Bahamas and western Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and just inland the coast of Cuba between 78W-81W. Mainly moderate south winds are east of the front, with gentle northeast winds to the west of the boundary. A surface trough curves along a position from 26N33W to 18N40W to 11N42W and 05N40W. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with embedded areas of moderate rain and isolated showers are noted to the east of the surface trough to near 20N. Strong to near gale-force easterly winds cover the area from 22N to 30N between 36W and 50W. Mostly strong winds are noted from 13N to 19N within 280 nm of the coast of Africa, from 18N to 23N between 26W and 34W and from 10N to 23N between 50W and 60W. Wave heights range from 8-11 ft are north of 18N and east of 40W. Wave heights in the range of 7-9 ft are from 13N to 23N between 50W and 62W. Lower wave heights in the range from 3-6 ft are elsewhere east of 50W, and 4-6 ft to the west of 50W. As for the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned stationary boundary will weaken tonight and dissipate Sat. Fresh to strong trades are forecast for the offshore waters N of Hispaniola tonight through Sat night. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun, and reach from near 31N66W to east-central Cuba near 21N78W early Mon, and from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front, affecting most of the area through mid-week. $$ Aguirre