000 AXNT20 KNHC 111757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Feb 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The pressure gradient between a building central Atlantic Ocean ridge, and lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama, will support strong to minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, every night through the middle of next week. The sea heights are forecast to build to a range of 12 feet to 13 feet by Saturday night. Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico by early Saturday afternoon. The cold front will exit the SE Gulf of Mexico late Sunday afternoon. Gale force N winds are expected behind the front, offshore of Texas and Tampico in Mexico on Saturday night, then offshore Veracruz in Mexico on Sunday. The sea heights are forecast to build to 12 feet on Saturday night, and may exceed 15 feet on Sunday off Veracruz. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N/06N along 10W, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 05N24W, and to 03N35W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward between 18W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 13W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning, that is related to the Saturday afternoon cold front. A surface ridge passes through 31N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to NE Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, beyond 24N97W at the coast of Mexico. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the Gulf from 85W westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm of the coasts of Texas and Mexico from 22N to 27N. Isolated moderate covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are in the SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet in the northern Gulf, and from 2 feet to 4 feet in the southern half of the Gulf. Benign marine conditions will prevail across the basin through Sat, as high pressure remains in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat afternoon bringing gale force northerly winds behind the front offshore the Texas coast to Tampico, Mexico by Sat night, then gale force winds will funnel south to offshore Veracruz Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the frontal boundary and the front should exit the basin late Sun afternoon. Strong N winds are forecast over most of the remainder of the Gulf, behind the front. Conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf by Mon night as high pressure builds across the basin, however moderate to fresh NE winds will continue through Tue nigh over the SE Gulf and the Florida Straits. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning, offshore NW Colombia. A stationary front passes through the central Bahamas, to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W. A surface trough continues from 22N77W, to 16N84W in the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is to the northwest of the surface trough. Strong winds are in the central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate NE winds cover the western parts of the area. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. The exception is the range from 7 feet to 10 feet offshore Colombia. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the NW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds have started to propagate into the eastern Caribbean Sea this morning, and they will continue westward through the weekend. These conditions will reach the central Caribbean Sea by tonight, with building rough seas across the area. Nightly winds will pulse to minimal gale force off Colombia every night through the middle of next week. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean Sea on Sunday afternoon. Expect fresh to strong NE winds behind the next cold front through Tue, with building seas. The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage, from Monday night through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N69W, through the central Bahamas, to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W. A surface trough continues from 22N77W, to 16N84W in the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm to the east of the stationary front. Mainly moderate S winds are east of the front, with gentle NE winds on the W side of the boundary. A surface trough curves through 26N33W 17N40W 10N42W 05N39W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate is to the east of the surface trough. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 18N northward from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 13N to 23N between 50W and 62W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere 50W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, from 50W westward. Strong to near gale-force winds cover the area from 22N to 30N between 36W and 50W. Mostly strong winds are: from 13N to 19N within 280 nm of the coast of Africa, from 18N to 23N between 26W and 34W, from 10N to 23N between 50W and 60W. A stationary frontal boundary, extending from Bermuda across the central Bahamas to east central Cuba, will weaken today and dissipate on Saturday. Fresh to strong trades are forecast for the offshore waters N of Hispaniola tonight through Sat night. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun and extend from 31N67W to east-central Cuba near 21N77W early Mon, and from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front, affecting most of the area through mid-week. $$ MT