000 AXNT20 KNHC 110512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Feb 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building ridge over the central Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support strong to minimal gale force winds across the south- central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia mainly at night through Sat night. Seas are forecast to build to 12-13 ft by Sat night. Gale conditions are also possible Mon night and Tue night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 07N13W to 05N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from the equator to 06N between 20W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf region with a 1020 mb high pressure located near the western Florida panhandle. Another high pressure center of 1018 mb is analyzed near Brownsville, Texas. Patches of low level clouds are noted across the Gulf waters, more concentrated over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SW Gulf, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the northern Gulf and 2-4 ft over the southern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure over the northern Gulf will support generally benign marine conditions across the basin through Sat morning. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf by late Sat afternoon and exit the SE Gulf Sun afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front over most of the Gulf, except for strong to near-gale force winds in the western Gulf. Gale force winds are possible over the far west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico Sat night through Sun. High pressure will build across the northern Gulf Mon, however moderate to fresh NE winds will continue through Tue night over the southeastern Gulf and the Straits of Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES Section above for details on the developing gales offshore NW Colombia. The southern end of a stationary frontal boundary is over Camaguey, Cuba generating locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over parts of Jamaica, and over the NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to fresh trade winds over the east and central Caribbean, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are seen in the lee of western Cuba. Altimeter data and buoy observations indicate seas of 4-6 ft across much of the basin, except seas of 7-9 ft near the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, moderate NE winds over the northwest Caribbean will diminish through Fri. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands will propagate into the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Sun. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun, generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it through Tue, with building seas. The cold front will extend from the Windward Passage to NE Honduras by Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N68W to the central Bahamas to Camaguey, Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted just ahead of the front. Recent scatterometer data indicate the winds shift associated with this system, with gentle NE winds on the W side of the boundary and mainly moderate SE winds on the E side. Higher wind speeds are seen near the convective activity. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 30N32W to 18N38W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are near the northern end of the trough axis due to the pressure gradient between the trough and a 1033 mb high pressure located just NE of the Azores. This trough is the reflection of an upper-level low spinning near 26N36W. Scattered showers are related to this feature. Abundant multilayered clouds with embedded showers are between the trough axis and the coast of W Africa. A second trough is analyzed from 16N37W to 06N39W. Fresh to strong winds are noted east of the Lesser Antilles with seas of 6-8 ft over this area. Another area of fresh to locally strong NE winds is observed per satellite derived wind data over the Atlantic roughly from 21N-28N between 41W-47W. Altimeter data indicate seas of 8-10 ft within this area of winds. For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin to dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong trades are forecast for the offshore waters N of Hispaniola Fri night through Sat night. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun and extend from 31N66W to east- central Cuba near 21N77W early Mon, and from 27N65W to the Windward Passage Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front, affecting most of the area through mid-week. $$ GR