000 AXNT20 KNHC 100947 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Feb 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures over NW Colombia and Panama will tighten, supporting gale force winds in offshore NW Colombia starting tonight. Additional gales may pulse each night Fri night and Sat night. Seas in and near the region of gales will build to 13 ft. Winds will decrease below gale by Sunday, but the rough seas will persist into early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly over Africa, entering the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extening to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 10N17W to 02N33W. A surface trough then interrupts the ITCZ and extends from 12N37W to 00N35W. Another segment of the ITCZ then continues from 02N37W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 01N to 05N and between 25W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high pressure system positioned just south of Louisiana near 28N90W dominates the Gulf of Mexico, allowing fairly tranquil weather conditions. Surface observations indicate that moderate N-NE winds are occurring in the SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass depicted fresh to strong NE winds at the entrance of the Yucatan Channel, but this has likely diminished by 06 UTC. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail south of 23N, with seas to 6 ft likely in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, the high pressure over the northern Gulf will continue to support generally mild marine conditions across the basin into Sat. A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf by late Sat afternoon and exit the southeast Gulf by Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front over most of the Gulf. Gale force winds are possible over the far west-central and southwest Gulf off Mexico Sat night into Sun. High pressure will build across the northern Gulf Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES Section above for details on the developing gales offshore NW Colombia. A cold front extends from central Cuba to just east of Cozumel. Farther south, a weak surface trough is noted along the Bay Islands of Honduras. Only a few shallow showers are associated with these boundaries. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean Sea and W of 84W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia and in the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 4-7 ft are found in the central and eastern Caribbean and W of 84W in the western Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring offshore NW Colombia. An altimeter satellite pass a few hours ago recorded wave heights up to 6 ft between Hispaniola and the ABC islands. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Thu, pulsing to minimal gale force off Colombia Thu night through Sat. A cold front over the northwest Caribbean will stall from eastern Cuba to southern Nicaragua adjacent waters Thu. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds west of the front will diminish on Fri morning as the front dissipates. A cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean on Sun followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from an intensifying storm SE of the Outer Banks to the NW Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 120 nm E of the boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh S winds are occurring E of the cold front, mainly N of 28N, and likely associated with the convection in the area. Seas W of 60W are 3-6 ft. Over the eastern Atlantic, the weak low pressure we have been following for a few days has weakened into a surface trough, extending from 30N27W to 16N37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 27N and between 24W and 31W. The pressure gradient between this system and a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 33N47W results in fresh to strong NE winds N of 16N and between the trough and 57W. Seas of 8-12 ft prevail in the described region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent. For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will transition to a stationary front on Thu morning from 31N69W to eastern Cuba before dissipating Thu night into Fri. Moderate to fresh winds west and east of the front will affect most of the area within this period. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri night through Sun. The next cold front is forecast to move off northeast Florida on Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front affecting the offshore area north of 27N through Mon afternoon. Gust to gale force winds are likely over the northern offshores Sun night. $$ Christensen