000 AXNT20 KNHC 092153 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Feb 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and low pressure N of Colombia will increase for the end of this week, causing gale force winds to develop Fri night offshore Colombia. Additional gales may pulse each night into early next week. Seas in and near the region of gales will build to 8 to 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 07N12W to 02N29W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 02N to 08N between 25W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A slow-moving cold front is noted from the Florida Straits to the western Cuba and into the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure building in its wake is centered just offshore the mouth of the Rio Grande. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail in the SE Gulf, with the remainder of the basin having mainly light to gentle anticyclonic flow due to the high pressure. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the SE Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with 1 to 3 ft seas elsewhere. No significant convection is occurring in the basin. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds affecting the SE gulf waters in the wake of a front will diminish by Thu morning. The next cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf by Sat followed by fresh to strong northerly winds rapidly increasing to near gale-force by Sat afternoon and gale-force over the eastern Mexico adjacent waters Sat night into Sun. The front will exit the basin Sun afternoon, however fresh to strong N to NE winds will continue to affect the SW and E basin through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features Section above for information on developing gales offshore Colombia Fri night. A stationary front extends from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds are noted NW of this boundary, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Convection previously associated with a surface trough in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands has dissipated. Elsewhere in the NW Caribbean, mainly light to gentle winds prevail with seas less than 4 ft. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the basin and low pressure over Colombia has increased today, and winds have increased to fresh to locally strong offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere across the central and eastern Carribbean, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas of 3 to 6 ft, highest in the south central basin. No significant convection is noted in this region. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Thu, increasing to locally strong speeds Thu night into Sun. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at night Fri, Sat and Mon. A stationary front over the NW Caribbean will transition back to a cold front later today and then stall from eastern Cuba to southern Nicaragua adjacent waters on Thu. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds west of the front will diminish on Fri morning as the front dissipates. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Sun followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slow moving cold front stretches from near 32N74W through the Floria Straits. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 120 nm W of the boundary. Fresh N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed behind this front. Ahead of the front, the gradient between the front and a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 32N54W is inducing fresh N winds N of 28N between 60W and 70W. Elsewhere N of 23N and W of 50W, moderate or less winds prevail, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh trades exist to the S with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Farther E, a 1011 mb low pressure centered near 25N33W has a surface trough extending through it from 29N29W to 18N37W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N and E of the low center, continue E to the Canary Islands. Strong N winds are occurring N of the low between 28W and 38W, with a broad area of mainly fresh winds to the W of the low and associated trough, N of 20N and E of 50W. Seas in this area of higher winds range from 7 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, to the S and E, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front extending from 31N75W to western Cuba will transition to a stationary front on Thu morning from 31N69W to eastern Cuba before dissipating Thu night into Fri. Moderate to fresh winds west and east of the front will affect most of the area within this period. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri night through Sun. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida on Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front affecting the offshores N of 27N through Mon afternoon. Gust to gale force winds are likely over the northern offshores Sun night. $$ KONARIK