000 AXNT20 KNHC 091743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Feb 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 07N12W to 05N20W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between the west coast of Africa and 16W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure continues to build across the western and northern Gulf behind a stationary front that stretches from the Florida Straits to western Cuba. Light to gentle breezes surround the center of the high in the northern and western Gulf, while moderate to fresh northerly winds cover the remainder of the basin south of 25N and east of 92W. Seas are mainly 1 to 3 ft north of 25N and 4 to 6 ft south of 25N. For the forecast, the stationary front will transition back to a cold front later today and move east of the area. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds behind the front affecting the SE gulf waters will diminish by Thu morning. The next cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf by Sat followed by fresh to strong northerly winds rapidly increasing to near gale to gale force winds over eastern Mexico adjacent waters Sat night into Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds are noted behind the boundary, contained mostly within the Yucatan Channel and 90 nm east of the Yucatan Peninsula, which is allowing for seas up to 5 ft. East of the boundary in the NW Caribbean, light to gentle winds are noted with 1 to 3 ft seas. A weak surface trough found near the Cayman Islands is producing some isolated showers. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated that moderate to fresh trades were in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in the region are 3-6 ft, with the highest seas occurring offshore NW Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Thu, increasing to locally strong speeds Thu night into Sun. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force Fri night and Sat night. A stationary front over the NW Caribbean will transition back to a cold front later today and then stall from eastern Cuba to southern Nicaragua adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds west of the front will diminish on Fri morning as the front dissipates. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 1016 mb low pressure near 32N75W to western Cuba. Regional radar notes scattered showers within 90 nm of the frontal boundary and a satellite scatterometer pass found fresh NW winds behind the boundary. A 1023 mb high centered near 32N54W extends a ridge across the remainder of the western Atlantic, allowing for moderate to fresh return flow west of 50W. Seas in this region range from 4 to 6 ft. Farther east, a weak 1012 mb low pressure system is located near 26N32W along a surface trough extending from 29N29W to 18N37W. Scattered showers are noted in the eastern quadrant of the low pressure. Scatterometer data indicates that fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring N of 20N and between the low pressure and 50W. Seas in the region are 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will transition to a cold front later today and then stall again on Thu morning from 31N69W to eastern Cuba before dissipating Thu night into Fri. Moderate to fresh winds west and east of the front will affect most of the area within this period. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri night through Sun. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida on Sun morning. $$ Mora