000 AXNT20 KNHC 090455 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Feb 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0444 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N24W to 04N35W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is observed on satellite imagery from 02N to 07N and between 16W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from southern Florida to the NE tip of the Yucatan peninsula. Isolated showers are noted near the frontal boundary. The deep upper level trough over the SE United States is also enhancing the development of isolated showers across the E Gulf, affecting central and southern Florida, and producing a large area of cloudiness across the SE Gulf and E Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile, a strong 1024 mb high pressure dominates the northern and western Gulf, allowing a dry continental to filter in and welcoming tranquil weather conditions. Surface observations and a recent scatterometer satellite pass show that fresh to strong NE-N winds are affecting the waters from SW Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Seas in this region are 5-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are present elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will persist through Thu. Winds and seas are diminishing across the Gulf as high pressure settles over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf by Sat. Gale conditions are possible behind the front Sat night and Sun over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from southern Florida to the NE tip of the Yucatan peninsula, producing some isolated showers over the Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean Sea. A weak surface trough is found near the Cayman Islands but no significant convection is associated with this feature. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather condition. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh trades are found in the central and eastern Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel. Seas in the region are 3-6 ft, with the highest seas occurring offshore NW Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off Colombia mainly at night. A weak front will remain nearly stationary over the NW Caribbean trough Fri while weakening. The aerial extent of the fresh to strong trades will begin to increase on Fri, covering most of the east and central Caribbean late Fri through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from a weak low pressure between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda to southern Florida, entering the tropical Atlantic near 31N74W. Scattered showers are seen between the frontal boundary the coast of Florida. Nearby, a weak surface trough extends from 30N72W to 26N75W and a few weak showers are occurring within 60 nm to the east of the system. Recent scatterometer satellite data depict fresh to locally strong winds within 120 nm of the frontal boundary and surface trough. Seas in the described area are 3-6 ft. A weak 1011 mb low pressure system is located near 25N34W and a surface trough extends from the center to near 15N41W. Scattered showers are noted in the eastern quadrant of the low pressure. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring N of 22N and between the low pressure and 50W. Seas in the region are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned will start to move eastward on Wed, as a weak low pressure develops along the frontal boundary north of the northern Bahamas. The front will stall again, from 31N68W to the central Bahamas late Thu into Fri, before lifting north of the area as a warm front on Sat. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida on Sun. $$ DELGADO